Repros Therapeutics Inc.RPRX is expected to report third-quarter 2015 results on Nov 9. Overall, the company has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 17.95%. Let's see how things are shaping up for the third quarter of 2015.
Factors at Play
Repros, a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, is focused on the development of treatments for hormonal and reproductive system disorders. The company currently has two candidates in its pipeline: enclomiphene (previously known as Androxal) and Proellex. Enclomiphene is Repros' lead pipeline candidate that is under FDA review for the treatment of secondary hypogonadism in overweight men wishing to restore normal testicular function.
However, late last month, Repros received a huge setback when the FDA cancelled an advisory panel meeting with the Division of Bone, Reproductive and Urologic Products that was scheduled for Nov 3 for enclomiphene. The FDA informed that certain concerns cropped up late in the review related to the bio-analytical method validation that could affect interpretability of certain pivotal study data. A final response from the FDA is expected by Nov 30.
Meanwhile, Repros' second pipeline candidate, Proellex, is being developed for the treatment of uterine fibroids and endometriosis. Proellex is currently in a couple of phase IIb efficacy studies (both oral and vaginal administration) for the treatment of uterine fibroids in women who experience heavy vaginal bleeding due to these benign tumors. The company expects to complete the first course of treatment in both studies by the second quarter of 2016. Additionally, the company expects a phase II study on Proellex (low-dose oral administration) on endometriosis to be fully enrolled by the first quarter of 2016.
With no approved product in the company's portfolio at the moment and enclomiphene being its lead pipeline candidate, investor focus will remain on further regulatory updates regarding enclomiphene.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Repros is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as elaborated below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Repros is -21.43%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate of a loss of 34 cents per share is wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 28 cents.
Zacks Rank: Repros' Zacks Rank #3 when combined with a negative ESP of -21.43% makes a surprise prediction difficult.
We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Ignyta, Inc. RXDX has an Earnings ESP of +21.88% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter 2015 results on Nov 9.
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MACK has an Earnings ESP of +2.44% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter 2015 results on Nov 9.
The Earnings ESP for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY is +2.13% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter 2015 results on Nov 9.