Teleflex stock (NYSE: TFX) gained around 10% over the month to levels of around $362 currently. But will the company’s stock see higher prices over the coming weeks, or is a decline in the stock imminent?
According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price, returns for Teleflex stock average around 1.1% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing 10% gains over the previous month (21 trading days). Notably, though, the stock is very likely to outperform the S&P500 over the next month (21 trading days), with an expected excess return of 1.1%.
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding TFX stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Teleflex stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF TFX stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, FDX stock moves an average of 1.4%, which implies an excess return of -0.2% compared to the S&P500.
More importantly, there is a 57% probability of a positive return over the next 21 trading days and 51% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over 5 trading days.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Teleflex Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Teleflex stock higher after a drop?
Answer: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Teleflex stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Teleflex stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Teleflex stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
TFX stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 4.2% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.7% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Teleflex stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer: If you buy and hold Teleflex stock, the expectation is over time the near term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For TFX stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Teleflex after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although TFX stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
TFX’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Teleflex stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio to beat the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk, it has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.