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What's in Store for Gilead (GILD) this Earnings Season?

Gilead Sciences Inc.GILD is scheduled to report third-quarter 2015 results on Oct 27. Gilead's earnings track record has been pretty good - last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 9.54%. The company has posted a positive earnings surprise in each of the trailing four quarters with an average beat of 6.88%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What to Expect from Q3 Results

Gilead's blockbuster hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments, Sovaldi and Harvoni, are expected to continue to contribute meaningfully to the company's top line in the third quarter. Harvoni should benefit from reimbursement in several European countries.

Other anti-viral products, such as single tablet HIV treatments Complera/Eviplera and Stribild should also continue to perform well. However, Atripla revenues are expected to continue to decline. Meanwhile, pricing measures in the form of rebates and discounts could lead to a slowdown in Harvoni sales in 2015. In fact, Harvoni sales were flat sequentially in the second quarter.

Gilead expects product sales in the range of $29-$30 billion. We could see an update on the guidance based on the third quarter performance.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Gilead is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to likely post an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is pegged at 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate both stand at $3.03.

Zacks Rank: Gilead's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), when combined with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, makes an earnings prediction difficult.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AMAG has an Earnings ESP of +39.66% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. It is scheduled to release results on Nov 3.

The Earnings ESP for Anika Therapeutics Inc. ANIK is +2.94% and it carries a Zacks Rank #1. The company is expected to release results on Oct 28.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. KERX has an Earnings ESP of +3.85% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release results on Oct 29.

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GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD): Free Stock Analysis Report

AMAG PHARMA INC (AMAG): Free Stock Analysis Report

ANIKA THERAPEUT (ANIK): Free Stock Analysis Report

KERYX BIOPHARMA (KERX): Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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