Sirius XM’s stock (NASDAQ: SIRI), a leading provider of satellite radio, has seen a flat growth in the last week (five trading days) to levels of near $6 currently. But will the company’s stock see higher levels over the coming weeks, or is a decline in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price, returns for SIRI stock average around a marginal growth of 0.7% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a flat growth during the last week. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding SIRI stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis machine learning engine SIRI stock chances of a rise. You can see the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
Sirius XM’s quarterly revenue was up a modest 9% from where it was two years ago in Q2. In addition, its net income rose 11% higher from the pre-pandemic quarter. This growth was higher on a per-share basis as a result of Sirius XM’s aggressive buybacks. As of June 2021, the company had 31.4 million self-pay subscribers – who are paying for premium radio despite so many connected cars having access to unlimited free or almost free alternatives. Now, that there are more cars on the road – the company expects to add 1.1 million accounts this year. Sirius XM has a long history of providing conservative guidance for revenue, self-pay net subscriber additions, free cash flow, and adjusted EBITDA. The company typically raises those guidance figures throughout the year as it did in its latest Q2 report. SIRI now expects total revenue of approximately $8.5 billion (up by $200 million from the previous forecast), adjusted EBITDA of $2.67 billion, and free cash flow of $1.7 billion, both up $100 million from prior estimates.
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF SIRI stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, SIRI stock moves an average of 3.3%, with a 69% probability of a positive return over this period.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of SIRI Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for SIRI stock higher after a drop?
Answer: Consider two situations,
Case 1: SIRI stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: SIRI stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for SIRI stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
SIRI stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 3.3% over the next month (twenty-one trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.1% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next twenty-one trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how SIRI stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer: If you buy and hold Sirius XM stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and the Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For SIRI stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for SIRI stock after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
SIRI’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for SIRI’s stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. SIRI Stock Comparison With Peers shows how Sirius XM compares against peers on metrics that matter.Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios Trefis Price Estimates
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.