What's Happening With Exelixis Stock?

[Updated: Sep 8, 2021] EXEL Stock Rise

A couple of months back we discussed that the stock price of Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL), a genomics-based pharmaceuticals company focused on oncology treatments, is best avoided after a negative outcome from its clinical trials for Cabometyx in previously untreated liver cancer patients resulted in a sharp drop in its stock price. The stock has seen a slight rebound from the lows of $16 it made in July to levels of around $20 currently. Recently, Exelixis has been hit hard with two of its senior executives – Chief Medical Officer and Senior Vice President (Sales) – passing away. For Exelixis, the focus remains on expansion of Cabometyx – which garnered $275 million in Q2, and its peak sales are estimated to be over $2.5 billion in 2026. A strong Q2 has helped EXEL stock post a 13% growth over the last twenty-one trading days.

But now that EXEL stock has seen a 13% move over the last month or so, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is an equal chance of a rise or decline in EXEL stock over the next month. Out of 517 instances in the last ten years that EXEL stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 13% or more, 259 of them resulted in EXEL stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 259 out of 517, or about a 50% chance of a decline in EXEL stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Exelixis Stock Chances of Decline for more details. Going by historical performance, we believe that EXEL stock is best avoided for now.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving 1.3% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 49% of the occasions.
  • After moving 3.9% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 54% of the occasions
  • After moving 13% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 50% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Exelixis (EXEL) Stock Return: AI Predicts EXEL Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Exelixis (EXEL) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: AGIO highest at 33%; SGEN lowest at -13%
  • Ten-Day Return: AGIO highest at 33%; SGEN lowest at -11%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: AGIO highest at 27%; ACAD lowest at -15%


[Updated: Jun 29, 2021] EXEL Stock Decline

The stock price of Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL), a genomics-based pharmaceuticals company focused on oncology treatments,  has seen a  large 21% drop over the last five trading days, after the company announced a negative outcome from its clinical trials for Cabometyx in previously untreated liver cancer patients. While the combination of Cabometyx and Roche’s Tecentriq did reduce disease progression, it fell short of statistical significance, and the chances of this combo now getting approval for first-line liver cancer treatment are low. Cabometyx is already approved for first-line kidney cancer treatment, with its revenue for Exelixis expected to top $1 billion this year. The expansion of the drug in liver cancer would have meant even higher sales going forward, but given the recent data from clinical trials, investors have cut their expectations, as evident from the stock decline.

Now that EXEL stock has fallen 20% in just five days, will it resume its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a rise in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s historical stock price data, returns for EXEL stock average nearly -3.7% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 20% drop over the previous week (five trading days). We believe that EXEL stock is therefore best avoided in the near term.

But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding EXEL stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Exelixis stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Exelixis Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for Exelixis stock higher after a drop?

Answer: Consider two situations,

Case 1: Exelixis stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Exelixis stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Exelixis stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

EXEL stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 4.2% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 2.4% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Exelixis stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer: If you buy and hold Exelixis stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For EXEL stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Exelixis after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although EXEL stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Exelixis stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

While EXEL stock may see lower levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Zoetis vs Regeneron.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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