Hollywood is mad at Netflix (NASDAQ:). First, Netflix stole viewers from the traditional Hollywood world. Then, the streaming giant started stealing awards, too. Netflix is already co-king of the Emmys, and has a rapidly expanding presence at the Oscars. Plus, Netflix stock is killing it over even the biggest movie theater chains.
Hollywood wants to change that. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has considered a rule change which would implement certain eligibility requirements for an Oscar nomination. These new rules ultimately would exclude Netflix’s original streaming movies from the competition. The Department of Justice doesn’t like the sound of that. Now, there’s a .
All the while, Netflix stock has shrugged off the noise and stayed in rally mode, It is as if investors are saying that the company doesn’t need Oscar and Emmy awards to succeed at scale.
Investors are right. Netflix doesn’t need Hollywood content awards to continue to dominate the entertainment industry. The world is rapidly being democratized. The opinion of the few matters increasingly less next to the opinion of the many. The Oscars is representative of the opinion of the few. Roughly 7,000 people vote on the Academy Awards every year. Netflix adds more than ten-times as many people as that to its service every single day.
In other words, Netflix’s inclusion or exclusion in the Oscars is irrelevant to the long term success of Netflix and NFLX stock. This stock is a long term winner because the masses love the platform, the content, and the price. So long as that remains true, Netflix stock will only go higher.
Awards Are Meaningless
There was a point in time when an Oscar or Emmy nomination and win were a big deal. That time is long gone.
Over the past several years, the world has become increasingly democratized. Part of this is because everything is just one click away thanks to the internet. Part of this is because social media has connected the world more than ever before. Further, part of this pivot is because of the rise in popularity of democratized content creation, distribution, and voting platforms, like YouTube, Yelp (NASDAQ:), and IMDb.
Long story short, everyone has a voice now, and everyone is using the internet and its services to communicate that voice. Net result? I don’t really care what the critics think anymore. I care what the masses think.
No longer do I ask “What does this food critic say about this restaurant?” or “Did that movie win an Oscar?” Instead, I ask “What’s the Yelp rating?” or “What’s the IMDb rating?” because that’s representative of the opinion of the many, not the few, and is statistically a more accurate opinion on quality.
From this perspective, while they grab headlines Oscar nominations and wins aren’t game changers. The Oscars voting committee measures just over 7,000 Hollywood big wigs, meaning that Green Book winning Best Picture last year was effectively the result of a 7,000 people survey.
But, that survey had essentially already been completed at much greater scale on IMDb, where on the movie. For Netflix, a platform that caters to the masses, the IMDb vote is far more meaningful than the Oscars vote.
In other words, because Netflix is a platform for the masses (not the few), the opinion of the masses (not the few) matters. Fortunately for Netflix stock, the opinion of the masses today is exceptionally favorable.
Netflix Is The Winner Among The Masses
Let’s take a look at how some of Netflix’s recent originals have scored on IMDb. The results are broadly impressive:
- Season 2 episodes of coming-of-age original series consistently scored ratings close to 9.
- The Motley Crue movie, , scored a solid 7.0 rating on a sizable 16,000 voter base.
- Dramedy series scored an impressive 8.5 rating on an equally impressive 26,000 voter base.
- Star studded scored a respectable 6.5 rating on a huge 50,000-plus voter base.
Broadly speaking, the mass opinion on Netflix content remains exceptionally favorable. It will remain so for the foreseeable future. In short, , thanks to unparalleled data and reach advantages. Consequently, the mass opinion on Netflix content should only grow more favorable for the foreseeable future.
If true, then Netflix stock will head higher, regardless of its inclusion or exclusion in the Oscars.
Bottom Line on Netflix Stock
All this back-and-forth between the DoJ and Hollywood regarding Netflix’s inclusion/exclusion in the Oscars is just noise. Regardless of how that situation plays out, Netflix stock will head higher, because Netflix is a platform built for the masses, and those masses still view Netflix content in an exceptionally favorable light.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NFLX.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.