USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Weekly Technical Perspective on the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) -

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly chart. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Notes: For months now we've highlighted a critical resistance range in USD/JPY , "at 110.88-111.65 - a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the November sell-off and the 50% of the broader decline off the late-2016 high. " Price closed above this threshold last week and leaves the risk for a late-month high in USD/JPY.

That said, price is now testing yearly open resistance with the next major resistance target eyed at 113.20/30 where the 200-week moving average converges on the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late-2016 decline- look for a reaction there. Interim support now 111.65 with bullish invalidation back at 110.88 .

For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on B uilding a T rading S trategy

Bottom line: We're checking yearly open resistance today and could get some kickback but the focus remains weighted to the topside towards confluence resistance just above the 113-handle. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure heading into this regions and be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion short-entries late in the month. I'll publish an updated USD/JPY scalp report in the days ahead once we get some more structure in near-term price-action after this breakout.

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USD/JPY Trader Positioning

USD/JPY Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/JPY - the ratio stands at -1.4 (41.6% of traders are long) - weak bullish reading
  • T raders have remained net-short since Jun e 28 th ; price has moved 2.6% higher since then
  • Long positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 1.0% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 10.1% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD / JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD / JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in retail USD/JPY positioning are impacting trend- Le arn more about sentiment!

Relevant USD/JPY Data Releases

USD/JPY Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - for the l atest e conomic d evelopments and u pcoming event ri sk

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros , Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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