Crude Oil Price Chart - Weekly
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Weekly Technical Perspective on Crude Oil Prices (WTI)

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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude oil turned from long-term uptrend resistance last month with price plummeting more than 10% off the yearly highs. Today's decline is challenging the monthly opening range lows with price now approaching broader slope support. H ere are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Crude Oil (WTI) weekly chart.

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Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (WTI)

Crude Oil Price Chart - Weekly

Notes: In last month's Crude Oil Technical Perspective we highlighted a price reversal off confluence resistance at 75 on building momentum divergence while noting support targets at, " 71.32 backed by the outside-weekly reversal close at 69.29 - a break there would suggest a larger correction is underway targeting the sliding parallel (red) at ~ 66 and pitchfork support at 64.27 - both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached. "

Price has now broken below parallel support (red) with downside weekly support targets unchanged at 66 and the June close-low / pitchfork support at 64.27 . Resistance now back at 69.29 with bearish invalidation lowered to 71.33 .

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Bottom line: The risk remains weighted to the downside in Crude but price is approaching levels of interest for support just lower. From a trading standpoint, I'd be reducing short-exposure heading into broader structural support - we'll be on the lookout for possible exhaustion / long-entries on a dip lower into the aforementioned support zones. Intraday trading levels are largely unchanged but I'll publish an updated Crude Oil scalp report once we get some further clarity on near-term price action.

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Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +1.94 (65.9% of traders are long) - bearish reading
  • T raders have remained net-long since July 11 th ; price has moved 9.2 % lower since then
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jul y 4 th
  • Long positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 2.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 3.9% lower than yesterday and 13.6% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Crude Oil -bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Le arn more about sentiment!

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Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros , Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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