- Updated weekly technicals for AUD/JPY- key support 81.58 , bearish invalidation at 84.66
- Check o ut our 3Q price projections in our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinar s on Mondays at 12:30GMT
In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. AUD/JPY has been trading within the confines of a broad consolidation pattern since the March lows with price now trading just above a critical weekly support confluence. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/JPY weekly chart.
New to Forex Trading ? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide
AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart
Notes: AUD/JPY opens August trade just above a confluence support pivot we've been tracking for months now at 81.58/97 - price has been unable to close below this barrier since March. Basic trendline support extending off the 2016 late-June low converges on this zone into the start of the month and further highlights its technical significance (make-or-break level).
A break below this key support confluence targets the yearly lows at 80.50 backed by the 161.8% extension off the 2017 decline at 79.45 . Key weekly resistance & bearish invalidation remains steady at 84.25/66 - a close above this level would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place with such a scenario targeting the 86 -handle.
For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on B uilding a T rading S trategy
Bottom line: AUD/JPY is trading within a contractionary range with the lower bounds now converging on up-slope support. The broader focus heading into the start of the month will be on a break of the 81.58-84.66 range. From a trading standpoint, I've favored near-term trades (longs) against the 82-handle - but with the monthly opening range taking shape just above this key support zone, it's worth waiting for further guidance- watch the weekly close. I'll publish an updated AUD / JPY scalp report once we get some more clarity on near-term price action.
Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading
AUD/JPY Trader Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/JPY- the ratio stands at +2.03 (67% of traders are long) - bearish reading
- T raders have remained net-long since Jul y 23 rd ; price has remained unchanged since then
- The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jul y 12 th
- Long positions are 6.8% higher than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week
- Short positions are 28.4% lower than yesterday and 40.2% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD / JPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD / JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in AUD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Le arn more about sentiment!
Relevant AUD/JPY Data Releases
Economic Calendar - for the l atest e conomic d evelopments and u pcoming event ri sk
Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Euro vs Japanese Yen (EUR/JPY)
- New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Crude Oil Prices (WTI)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
--- Written by Michael Boutros , Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from IG .