AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart
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Weekly Technical Perspective on Aussie vs Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY)

DailyFX.com -

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. AUD/JPY has been trading within the confines of a broad consolidation pattern since the March lows with price now trading just above a critical weekly support confluence. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/JPY weekly chart.

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AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Notes: AUD/JPY opens August trade just above a confluence support pivot we've been tracking for months now at 81.58/97 - price has been unable to close below this barrier since March. Basic trendline support extending off the 2016 late-June low converges on this zone into the start of the month and further highlights its technical significance (make-or-break level).

A break below this key support confluence targets the yearly lows at 80.50 backed by the 161.8% extension off the 2017 decline at 79.45 . Key weekly resistance & bearish invalidation remains steady at 84.25/66 - a close above this level would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place with such a scenario targeting the 86 -handle.

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Bottom line: AUD/JPY is trading within a contractionary range with the lower bounds now converging on up-slope support. The broader focus heading into the start of the month will be on a break of the 81.58-84.66 range. From a trading standpoint, I've favored near-term trades (longs) against the 82-handle - but with the monthly opening range taking shape just above this key support zone, it's worth waiting for further guidance- watch the weekly close. I'll publish an updated AUD / JPY scalp report once we get some more clarity on near-term price action.

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AUD/JPY Trader Sentiment

AUD/JPY Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/JPY- the ratio stands at +2.03 (67% of traders are long) - bearish reading
  • T raders have remained net-long since Jul y 23 rd ; price has remained unchanged since then
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jul y 12 th
  • Long positions are 6.8% higher than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 28.4% lower than yesterday and 40.2% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD / JPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD / JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/JPY retail positioning are impacting trend- Le arn more about sentiment!

Relevant AUD/JPY Data Releases

AUD/JPY Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - for the l atest e conomic d evelopments and u pcoming event ri sk

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros , Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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