This Week Ahead for Global Markets leads off with a two-day EU Finance Ministers meeting. To no one's surprise, I tell you it is about Greece.
The Financial Times (FT) says this week's Eurogroup meeting in Brussels may or may not become a crucial moment for Greece. Immediate discussions concern releasing 7.2 billion euros from a European bailout.
Whether a Eurogroup deal is reached in Brussels or not this Tuesday, Athens owes the IMF 750 million euros. In June, Greece owes the IMF another 1.5 billion euros. Greece owes 3 billion euros to the ECB in July and August.
For 2015, Tuesday's 750 million euro payment is the biggest IMF payment Greece has had to make. That IMF money is part of a repayment plan set five years ago as part of a 2010 bailout. The IMF is unyielding about this schedule.
No advanced economy has ever defaulted on the IMF in its 70-year history. Were Greece to miss this payment, however, it would not be the first time. In the 1980s, the FT says as many as 25 countries a year missed IMF payments.
Under the official IMF timeline, a formal statement to the outside world about a missed Greek debt payment isn't made for 3 months anyway.
Will the global markets care about that technicality? Usually, traders "buy the rumor and sell the news."
On Monday , the EU Finance Ministers hold a two-day meeting in Brussels. It lasts through Tuesday. They discuss the latest with Greek negotiators from this weekend and before.
The BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting and rate decision is due. This was put off so as not to compete with major U.K. elections last week.
A spate of macro data comes from Venezuela, including its GDP growth rate (expect -3.6% y/y growth), the national CPI (expect +72.3% y/y -- no, that's not a misprint), and the national unemployment rate (expect a 7.9% rate). Obviously, this is how NOT to run an economy.
On Tuesday , Japan's preliminary leading indicator index comes out. Expect 105.5, up from a prior 104.8.
The Bank of France (BoF) business sentiment index comes out, too. Expect no change at 97.
In the U.K., industrial production comes out. Look for a +0.1% y/y reading, unchanged from the prior data. Manufacturing production was running at +1.1%. Expectations are for a fresh +1.0% y/y number.
In comparison, the South African manufacturing production number (a former U.K. colony) also comes out. Expectations are for a -0.6% y/y rate, falling from a -0.5% y/y rate prior.
The U.S. will publish its budget numbers.
South Korea will come out with its unemployment rate. It looks to be unchanged at 3.7%.
On Wednesday , Mainland China offers up new macro data. With a rate cut announced over the weekend, this is not likely to cause much interest. Nonetheless, industrial production looks to grow to +6.0% y/y from +5.6%, retail sales look up +10.4% from 10.2%, and urban fixed asset investment is unchanged at +13.5%.
France gives us its preliminary GDP growth rate. Expect +0.6% y/y, up from +0.2% y/y in the prior quarterly reading.
Germany offers us a final CPI reading. Expect a +0.4% y/y number. The German final HICP number should be +0.3%. That's not very strong in either case.
France's CPI comes out, too. Look for +0.1% y/y there. France's HICP looks weak at +0.1%. In all cases, that's as close to deflation as any economy can skate.
Further south, deflation is on. In Spain, the CPI is projected -0.6% and HICP is -0.7% in y/y terms. Both readings are unchanged from a prior sounding.
U.S. retail sales come out. Consensus looks for a +0.2% m/m rate, down from +0.9%. Ex-Autos could be +0.5% m/m.
On Thursday , Brazil offers up its latest broad retail sales data, and a turn could be in. Consensus looks for a +1.5% in y/y terms, up from -10.3%. In retail sales, consensus looks for +1.4% in y/y terms, up from -3.1%.
In South Korea, the Bank of Korea (BoK) announces its latest base rate decision. Look for no change at 1.75%.
On Friday , the U.S. reports capacity utilization (expect no change at 78.4), industrial production (expect that to show no change) and the U. of Michigan sentiment index (expect 96.5, up from a prior 95.9).
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