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We Did The Math XAR Can Go To $104

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Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel , we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (Symbol: XAR), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $104.41 per unit.

With XAR trading at a recent price near $76.22 per unit, that means that analysts see 36.99% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of XAR's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are Cubic Corp (Symbol: CUB), KEYW Holding Corp (Symbol: KEYW), and AAR Corp (Symbol: AIR). Although CUB has traded at a recent price of $51.90/share, the average analyst target is 52.22% higher at $79.00/share. Similarly, KEYW has 48.31% upside from the recent share price of $6.63 if the average analyst target price of $9.83/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting AIR to reach a target price of $52.00/share, which is 43.85% above the recent price of $36.15. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of CUB, KEYW, and AIR:

CUB, KEYW, and AIR Relative Performance Chart

Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:

Name Symbol Recent Price Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target % Upside to Target
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF XAR $76.22 $104.41 36.99%
Cubic Corp CUB $51.90 $79.00 52.22%
KEYW Holding Corp KEYW $6.63 $9.83 48.31%
AAR Corp AIR $36.15 $52.00 43.85%

Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.

10 ETFs With Most Upside To Analyst Targets »

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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