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Volatile Week’s Open as Myriad Risks Weigh

Market Drivers September 21, 2020

  • Very volatile week open
  • COVID, Political risks weigh
  • Nikkei 0.18% Dax -2.70%
  • UST 10Y 0.666
  • Oil $40
  • Gold $1931/oz
  • BTCUSD $10818

Asia and the EU

  • No Data

North America Open

  • No Data

It’s been a very volatile open to weeks trade with equity futures down by as much 2% as COVID and political risks weighed on the markets with cable also seeing a lot of selling pressure.

Stocks were essentially a one-way trade to the downside today as a fresh wave of COVID infection in Western Europe sparked fears of a second round of lockdowns that could derail the nascent recovery in the region.

The COVID rise is particularly troubling in UK where a second lockdown could stifle what looked to be a strong consumer led rebound. Cable hit a six day low as a result trading below 1.2850. One key concern is that the combination of COVID shutdowns and final Brexit negotiations could weaken Mr. Johnson’s hand as it would force him to negotiate just the economy turns sour.

In the US the focus is more political. Athough COVID cases will cross the 200,000 death mark today the greater turmoil is on the political implications of Supreme Court Justice Ginsburg’s death. The vacancy allows the President to fill the slot with less that six weeks to go before the election and could alter the composition of the court for decades.

Both sides of the political spectrum were energized by the President’s actions only complicating the already volatile US election landscape. Indeed with economic data stalling the story in the markets could turn to geo-political risk which by its very nature suggests far more volatile price action in week’s ahead.

With no data on the docket today – markets will likely follow every headline from DC and if US corps can’t rally equities at the open there is a strong possibility that we could see deeper selloff as the day proceeds.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Boris Schlossberg

Mr. Schlossberg is a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and a commentator for CNBC Asia and CNBC Europe. His daily currency research is widely quoted by Reuters, Dow Jones and Agence France Presse newswires and appears in numerous newspapers worldwide. Mr. Schlossberg has written for SFO magazine, Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He is the author of Technical Analysis of the Currency Market and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game, both of which are published by Wiley

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