USDA Lowers Meat Production Estimate in June - Analyst Blog

Per the latest outlook provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), lower beef and broiler production is set to offset increased pork and turkey production in 2014. Broiler production estimate has been lowered from last month due to slower pace of expansion. However, egg production is expected to increase supported by a rise in prices.

Estimated beef production for 2014 is presently down to 24,408 million pounds from the prior-month projection of 24,563 million pounds, whereas pork production is expected to increase to 22,820 million pounds from 22,655 million pounds expected in May. Turkey production is anticipated at 5,707 million pounds in 2014, dropping from 5,805 million pounds in 2013. However, in 2015, turkey production is estimated to be around 5,925 million pounds.

Due to increased demand for processing grade beef, imports for the year are likely to rise. However, exports in 2014 as well as 2015 are expected to slow down. Also, cattle, hog and turkey prices are kept unchanged from the previous month. Prices for broilers, eggs and milk are marginally increased compared with May estimates.

The decline in estimates is expected to negatively impact major meat producers including Hormel Corporation ( HRL ), Tyson Foods, Inc. ( TSN ), Sanderson Farms, Inc. ( SAFM ) and Pilgrim's Pride Corporation ( PPC ).

Not only livestock, but wheat, oilseeds and sugar production estimates have also been downgraded from that of May, whereas cotton production expectancy has seen a rise for U.S. However, for 2014-2015, world production of wheat is estimated at 701.6 million tons, up 4.6 million from May, due to an increase in the production volumes of European Union, China, Russia and India.

Cotton production for 2014-2015 is raised for the U.S. While cotton consumption is increased for India and Vietnam, it is lowered for Pakistan. Expected production for coarse grains and rice has changed marginally from the previous month.

Popular companies in the food products industry include BRF S.A. ( BRFS ), ConAgra Foods, Inc. ( CAG ), B&G Foods Inc. ( BGS ) and Inventure Foods, Inc. ( SNAK ).

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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