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US GDP kicks a September Fed hike further into the distance

The advance GDP numbers have pulled the rug from under September expectations

Yesterday the FFR implied probabilities had Sep at a 28% chance of a hike. That's down to 12% according to Fed funds futures now.

Inventories dropped for the first time since 2011 and that's already being viewed as a booster to come for the rest of the year.

The dollar has been smacked, which is more pain for USDJPY, which is under 103 once more and knocking around support at 102.80.

The euro has made the break through the resistance around 1.1115/20 to push up to 1.1155. The 50. fib of the Brexit drop sits at 1.1169 alongside the 55 dma.

Cable is into 1.3200 but still within recent ranges.

EURUSD daily chart

The fed have got a problem on their hands. Spending is up but that's always precarious and at the mercy of what businesses are doing. They don't look in that great a shape, if we take the investment numbers into account. If ever these two parts aligned positively then we'll be on for a hike. As it is, the Fed has more juggling to do in deciding monetary policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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