Upstart Holdings (UPST) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

Upstart Holdings UPST is slated to report fourth-quarter 2023 results after market close on Feb 13.

For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenues of approximately $135 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $135.3 million, suggesting a decline of 7.9% year over year.

The consensus mark is pegged at a loss of 15 cents per share, suggesting a significant improvement from the year-ago quarter’s loss of 25 cents.

UPST’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 35.2%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote

Factors to Consider

Degradation in the macro environment, conservative assumption for Upstart Macro Index in loan pricing, seasonal headwinds and tightening from funding partners are expected to have hurt the top line in the quarter under discussion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues from fees is pegged at $150 million, indicating a 3.8% decline from the year-ago quarter.

Consumer delinquencies are elevated, and funding markets remain limited in their appetite for risk. This is expected to have increased loan pricing in the company’s platform and lowered approval rates for loan applicants, thus reducing transaction volume and affecting the top line.

However, Upstart’s fourth-quarter results are likely to gain from its strategy to operate as a multiproduct company. Recent launches across its product portfolio powered by generative AI and machine learning may have favored UPST’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Moreover, the company is expected to have gained from a growing partner base in the fourth quarter. It is engaged with multiple prospective partners who are actively exploring long-term capital relationships.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Upstart this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

UPST currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and has an Earnings ESP of -9.59%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Per our model, NVIDIA NVDA, Akamai Technologies AKAM and Block SQ have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

NVIDIA carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of +5.26%. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 21. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 19%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVIDIA’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.51 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 412.5%. The consensus mark for revenues stands at $20.18 billion, calling for a year-over-year rise of 233.5%.

Akamai is slated to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 13. The company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.61% at present. Akamai’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 6.9%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.59 per share, suggesting an increase of 16.1% from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $1.37. Akamai’s quarterly revenues are estimated to improve 7.5% to $997.6 million.

Block carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +1.05%. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 22. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the preceding four quarters while missing on one occasion, with the average surprise being 11%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Block’s fourth-quarter earnings stands at 60 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 172.7%. It is estimated to report revenues of $5.69 billion, which suggests an increase of approximately 22.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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