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Upside to AMD's Notebook Processor Market Share?

With competition heating up across the notebook processor market, can AMD ( AMD ) grab market share from the computing and graphics powerhouse Intel ( INTC )? We posed this question to our readers last week and included their responses below. (See AMD vs. Intel - Can the Little Guy Win Share? )

While Intel dominates the notebook processor market, at roughly 86% market share, new products on the horizon have the potential to shake things up. Intel is preparing for next year's launch of its second-generation core architecture, Sandy Bridge, a 32-nanometer chip that can put CPUs and GPUs onto a single piece of silicon designed for tasks like handling high-definition video.

AMD, which boasts roughly 14% market share by our estimates, is developing its Llano accelerated processing unit ( APU ) for 2011 release as part of the company's Fusion initiative.

Our forecasts suggest flat market share in the notebook processor market for AMD and Intel in the years ahead. We maintain a price estimate of $7.74 for AMD , in line with market price, and $26.28 for Intel , implying 20% upside to market value.

By our analysis, AMD generates roughly 27% of its stock value from notebook processors, compared to 47% for Intel.

With both players ready to let the games begin, here's what the Trefis community had to say…

Members Think the Little Guy Will Put up a Fight

Trefis community members' average forecast for AMD's notebook processor market share indicates a projected increase from roughly 13% in 2009 to over 16% by 2011 (chart above), compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of stability near 13%. While we currently maintain a price estimate for AMD of $7.74, in line with the current market price, the community estimates imply an upside of 5% to our estimate on this variable alone.

When we look across all drivers, the community projects a much rosier forecasts than we provide with a community price estimate of $10.52 for AMD, suggesting 38% upside, which is well ahead of our estimates.

Modify the chart above to generate your own forecast for AMD's notebook processor market share to see the stock sensitivity to this driver or visit our site to see what other drivers the community predicts will bump AMD's stock higher.

Do you agree with the community forecast? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below.

Click here to see our full analysis forAMDorIntel.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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