UFP (UFPT) Hits 52-Week High, Can the Run Continue?

Have you been paying attention to shares of UFP Technologies (UFPT)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 15% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $47.15 in the previous session. UFP Technologies has gained 55.3% since the start of the year compared to the 22.7% move for the Zacks Industrial Products sector and the -16.4% return for the Zacks Containers - Paper and Packaging industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on November 5, 2019, UFP reported EPS of $0.75 versus consensus estimate of $0.56.

For the current fiscal year, UFP is expected to post earnings of $2.47 per share on $202.03 million in revenues. This represents a 17.62% change in EPS on a 6.08% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.81 per share on $214 million in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 13.77% and 5.92%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

UFP may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

UFP has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 18.9X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 14.7X versus its peer group's average of 9X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, UFP currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if UFP passes the test. Thus, it seems as though UFP shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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