Markets

Trefis Week in Review

The Week in Review

Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting.

Insights from the Week

Technology Media & Telecom

If AMD experiences success with its own hybrid chips, it could further make a dent in Nvidia's low end sales. This looks like bit of trouble, but should investors be concerned …

Many traders holding long position in the stock are looking forward to Q2 2011 results in August when they hope Mel's guidance on earnings and on SatRad 2.0, the next generation satellite radio, will take the stock to newer heights …

The May 2011 employment report has renewed fears of an economic slowdown, which could exacerbate the employment situation in the U.S. and the rest of the world …

  • Cisco's Downside from Switching Woes on June 10, 2011

Given that Cisco's products tend to be higher priced than some competitors, the company will need to lower its own pricing or give up market share - both of which hurt Cisco …

  • Groupon Takes on the OTA Market with Expedia on June 10, 2011

Like the rest of Groupon, Getaways will promote limited-time deals requiring customers to make an upfront payment in exchange for a voucher that can then be redeemed within a certain period of time …

  • Can Monster Overcome LinkedIn's Threat Through 6sense? on June 9, 2011

Monster's innovative resume search technology provides a catalyst for growth, which could improve it outlook. However it's ability to challenge LinkedIn and other niche players is still an open question …

  • Upside & Downside Risks for Priceline on June 9, 2011

We can reasonably expect Expedia's and other travel agencies' private-label partnerships with airlines to cause Priceline's share to be limited to 2.75% by the end of our forecast period …

  • 3 Reasons Why Cisco is Oversold on June 9, 2011

Following each of its post-earnings sell offs, the stock has made attempts to recover its pre-earnings levels sending a signal that some are optimistic that Cisco will recover in the near to medium-term …

  • A Look at CBS' Digital Properties on June 9, 2011

While the contribution of digital properties may be low, indirect impacts of increased engagement and brand building through this medium could include spur increased viewership for the company's more prominent channels …

  • EMC Gains Share in Growing Storage Software Market on June 9, 2011

The storage infrastructure market experienced the highest year-over-year growth of 29.3%, making the market worth $333 million in revenues in 1Q '11 …

  • CBS-Owned TV Stations and CBS Radio Drive 28% of the Company's Stock Value on June 8, 2011

CBS owns broadcasting TV stations through its CBS Television Stations group which offers programming from CBS Network, CW Network and MyNetworkTV. In addition to this, the company owns 130 radio stations …

  • Google Search Shows Flight Schedules: Kayak & Others Safe for Now on June 8, 2011

Travel related searches got a big boost with Google recently adding flight schedules to its search results. While the search result shows both the times and airlines under "schedule of non-stop flights", there is no airfare or seat availability listed …

  • Can Ultrabooks Defend Intel from Tablets? on June 8, 2011

We project that Intel will maintain its dominance in terms of market share, but uncertainty revolves around whether notebook shipments can withstand the surge of tablet popularity …

  • Verizon is Unbundling TV in FiOS Packages to Capture Broadband Demand on June 8, 2011

Verizon and AT&T could initially justify the high up front costs for building out its fiber-optic networks by offering more expensive bundled packages in order to generate higher average revenues per user …

  • Apple's Lion OS Price Reduced to Boost Mac Sales, Undercut Windows on June 8, 2011

OS X Lion can be downloaded online from the Mac App Store while the previous versions were available in retail stores on a physical disc …

  • Priceline Partners with Jetstar Airways as OTAs Race to Pair up with Airlines on June 7, 2011

Priceline's partnership with Jetstar Airways could result in Priceline's market share rising from 2.35% in 2011 to 3.06%, resulting in over 2% potential upside to our current $506 Trefis price estimate of Priceline's stock …

  • iCloud: Fortifying Apple's Moat in Mobile on June 7, 2011

The iCloud is another step in fortifying the iPhone's position as one of the premier smartphones and a market leader in mobile OS …

  • HDD Market Hurting As Tablets Sales Surge on June 6, 2011

HDD sales are also impacted rival storage devices such as flash memory and solid-state drives that are eating into traditional hard-drive strongholds like netbook computers as well as enterprise storage …

  • Is the Market Over Reacting to RIM's Short-Term Headwinds? on June 6, 2011

We expect its market share to increase to around 3.7% in 2011 with the information that we have based on Q1 2011 data and the outlook provided by the company for the rest of 2011 …

  • IBM Targets Cloud Services for Businesses on June 6, 2011

IBM sees a big opportunity in rolling out cloud services to companies, and it recently announced a new cloud hosting services platform offering multi-tenant solutions to businesses at reduced prices …

  • iCloud Should Strengthen Halo Effect of Apple Platform on June 6, 2011

Apple will unveil its iCloud services today, which will allow users to store digital files such as photos, music and videos in the cloud (remote computers), and access them through smartphones, PCs or tablets …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, & Automotive

  • Credit Card Improvements Drive Target's Q1 results on June 10, 2011

Target reported marginal growth of 2.7% in Q1 profit as strong earnings from its credit card segment offset the weaker-than-anticipated sales in the retail segment …

  • Wal-Mart Express: Wal-Mart's Answer to Dollar Stores? on June 10, 2011

Dollar-store chains have quickly expanded and pose intense competition to Wal-Mart. They aim at opening stores closer to customers' homes, a big advantage in times of high gas prices …

  • Jones Apparel Down 30% Since May - We Take a Look Why on June 10, 2011

The acquisition positions Jones as one of the world's most powerful portfolios of fashion footwear and is expected to bump up its international penetration …

  • Wal-Mart's Outlook in Africa on June 9, 2011

The foray into Africa could help Wal-Mart increase its market share in emerging countries. Of late, the emerging countries have been driving profits as U.S. retail sales have slowed …

  • Upside & Downside Risks for L'Oreal's Stock on June 8, 2011

Given L'Oreal's sound cash balance favoring extended periods of discounts and promotional pricing as it expands in the emerging market, we expect market share to rise to about 26% despite competition from regional players …

  • Will Home Delivery be Next Growth Driver to Wal-Mart? on June 8, 2011

We believe with increasing modernization and Internet penetration, it is very likely that customers' tendency would tilt towards being more aware about prices and at the same time shifting preference towards spending less time on running errands …

  • A Look at What Could Support a $36 Value for Aeropostale on June 8, 2011

Going forward, we expect Aeropostale revenue per square foot to further increase as the company has added significant customer following and brand value during the recent economic crisis …

  • EcoBoost Engine & Explorer Boost Ford Truck Sales on June 8, 2011

Ford has made EcoBoost engines fundamental to its strategy of providing technologically advanced, high-output, smaller-displacement powertrains that deliver exceptional fuel economy and performance …

  • GM's EU Business Improves on Cost Cutting & Recovering Demand on June 7, 2011

GM's European operations accounted for almost 18% of total revenues in 2011 Q1, and it seems poised to emerge from its loss-making streak …

  • Toyota's Japan & NA Sales Will Remain Weak in Short Term on June 6, 2011

We expect that Toyota's automobile sales will continue to face increased pressure through 2011 and early next year due to disruption in global auto parts supply chain …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services

  • Schwab's Total Brokerage Accounts Should Grow at Over 4% Annually on June 10, 2011

We expect more people to invest money in the market hoping for returns during the perceived bull run, resulting in an increase in the number of Schwab clients …

  • RBS Launches Brokerage Services in China Through JV on June 10, 2011

This move makes RBS the first UK bank and the seventh international bank to get approval to enter China's lucrative investment banking business …

  • Goldman's Debt Origination Contends with EU Crisis, Supported by US Corporates on June 9, 2011

The deteriorating credit worthiness of debt laden countries such as Ireland and Greece and stricter regulations over sovereign borrowing can potentially shrink the overall size of new debt issues by nations coming under the EU …

  • How Citizens Bank and Charter One Figure into RBS' Global Startegy on June 9, 2011

RBS' U.S. operations have held outstanding loans hovering around $100 billion over the past few years. And we believe this loan volumes could double over the next 5 years …

  • Prepaid Cards Can Help Push Transaction Volumes Higher for Visa on June 8, 2011

The exemption of prepaid cards is encouraging and many banks are pushing the sale of prepaid cards, resulting in a 35% increase in dollar volume of prepaid card transactions to $65 billion in 2010 from $48 billion in 2009 …

  • Goldman Trumps Deutsche Bank in Recovering German IPO Market on June 8, 2011

With around 20 small cap IPOs expected in 2011, the German IPO market is expected to see significant growth over the next few months …

  • Court Asks Barclays to Fork Over $2 Billion in Lehman Assets on June 7, 2011

Within a week, as a part of the flash sale of assets, Barclays paid $1.3 billion and acquired $47.4 billion in securities and assumed $45.5 billion in liabilities from Lehman …

  • Wells Fargo Eyes Retail Banking Opportunities in Eastern US on June 7, 2011

The average outstanding balance on Wells Fargo credit cards currently stands at ~$22 billion and we forecast it to grow over $40 billion by the end of the Trefis forecast period …

  • Concerns on RBS Accounting Practices Surface on June 7, 2011

While the MPs acknowledge the inherent flaws in the IFRS reporting method, they opine that RBS uses the method more extensively than other European banks to dress up its weak capital position …

  • BoA, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo Jointly Enter the Personal Payment Market on June 6, 2011

The main advantage of this service is that the user doesn't need to open a new account and can use the existing checking or savings account to transfer funds instantly …

  • Citi Shuts Another Prop Group as Banks Prepare for Volcker Rule on June 5, 2011

The closure of the $400 million fund would not impact the overall capital invested in the sales and trading business. However the move may lead to a decline in the margins of the business as prop trading yields higher returns …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Energy & Natural Resources

  • BP's Partner Moex/Mitsui Chips in for Oil Spill on June 10, 2011

Considering the scenario that BP is able to recover $10 billion of its Gulf of Mexico expenses - slightly less than a quarter of its total expenses - this would in itself represent a 5% upside to our $53.67 estimate for BP's stock …

  • LDK Manages Profits Despite a Shrinking Top Line on June 10, 2011

The improved margins are a result of the company's strategy of vertical integration combined with its cost-effective approach of hedging against high virgin-silicon prices by using scrap silicon …

  • Potential Downside Scenario for Silver Wheaton on June 10, 2011

If production remains flat to 2011 levels, this would knock about 5% off of our price estimate. If production levels matched 2010 low's this would imply a price estimate of nearly 15% lower …

  • SunPower Finds Trouble with CSVR Project on June 10, 2011

Considering the worst case scenario that the court decides against SunPower, the project would have to be scrapped - reducing the 250 MW installed system capacity that the company hoped to add over the next few years …

  • BP Plans to Offer Half its TNK-BP Stake to Rosneft on June 9, 2011

To get around this issue, BP proposed a $16 billion swap share deal with Rosneft, which fell through again due to an arbitration tribunal blocking the deal in favor of AAR …

  • SunPower Lowers 2011 Outlook, Could See Loss in Q2 on June 9, 2011

While the decision to shift to the R&C components business will lead to reduced margins in the short run, the fact that SunPower has the capability to dynamically rebalance its product offering based on market conditions is undoubtedly a significant strength …

  • A Look at Exxon's Equity Affiliates on June 7, 2011

The gargantuan size of the company comprises of a mix of its own extensive operations spread across the world, along with its equity investments in various global affiliates …

  • Potential Upside Scenario for Barrick Gold on June 7, 2011

Gold and other commodity prices declined sharply in the past few months. This decline in the prices was short-lived and the price for gold is now around $1,540 per ounce …

  • Upside & Downside Scenarios for DuPont's Stock on June 7, 2011

There could be 10% upside to the Trefis price estimate if gross margins for the division were to reach 29% instead of the current 27% Trefis forecast …

  • U.S. Steel May Have to Pay Up for Shutting Down Canada Plant on June 7, 2011

After Canada's Federal Court of Appeal decided against the company some days ago, the company could face penalties of as much as C$10,000 (about $10,200) for each day …

  • Freeport Will Likely See Slower Growth in Realized Gold Prices on June 7, 2011

Although the copper business is undoubtedly its mainstay, the company's gold operations are also significant in size. Freeport sold about 1.9 million ounces of gold in 2010, with sales at an all-time high of 2.6 million ounces in 2009 …

  • Prospects of Iron Ore Oversupply Could Weigh on Vale on June 7, 2011

As the world leader in iron ore and iron ore pellets production and the world's largest nickel reserves, the company has benefited from the booming demand in emerging markets like China …

  • Understanding Cliffs' Asia-Pacific Iron Ore Business on June 7, 2011

Cliffs' Asia-Pacific iron ore business came into existence in 2005, and supplies direct-shipping lump and fines iron ore out of Australia …

  • Exxon May Have to Address Fracking-Related Concerns Soon on June 6, 2011

Environmentalists and critics of this procedure have expressed concerns that the chemicals used can contaminate water sources. Some critics have also linked fracking with an increase in earthquake activity …

  • Top 2 Sources of Value for Chesapeake Energy on June 6, 2011

The firm has interests in over 44,100 producing natural gas and oil wells that produce over 2.4 billion cubic feet equivalent per day, 93% of which is natural gas …

  • Top 3 Sources of Value for Freeport-McMoran on June 6, 2011

Freeport's gold operations are almost wholly concentrated in Indonesia. For 2009, FCX sold 1,863 thousand ounces of gold, of which 1,765 thousand ounces were sold from the Indonesian mines …

  • Freeport's Impact from Copper Supply Issues and EM Demand on June 6, 2011

In 2010, the company sold 3.9 billion pounds of copper at an average realized price of $3.59 per pound - generating $14 billion in revenues from the sale of copper …

(Trefis Pro Exclusive) Industrials & Transportation

  • Eagle Ford Shale Adds to Halliburton's N. America Revenues on June 9, 2011

The number of active rigs jumped from 1,310 rigs in 2009 to 1,890 in 2010, we estimate this number to grow to 2,140 by the end of 2011 and reach 3,400 wells by the end of the 2017 …

  • New Coverage: $105 Trefis Price Estimate for Schlumberger N.V. on June 8, 2011

Higher oil prices have been associated with increased exploration and production budgets that directly impact the top line and bottom line performance of upstream services providers like Schlumberger …

  • New Coverage: $60 Trefis Price Estimate for Halliburton Co. on June 6, 2011

In 2010, the North American division accounted for 49% of Halliburton's global revenues and 58% of the total operating profits with exploration and production showing strong recovery in the region driven by increasing interest in unconventional sources …

  • New Coverage: $86 Trefis Price Estimate for Transocean Ltd. on June 6, 2011

The increasing shift of oil & gas exploration and production efforts to offshore locations and the improving economic viability of deepwater projects due to high crude oil prices are the two important factors that are expected to drive Transocean's growth …

Summaries of Trefis Members' Recent Forecasts

  • Rising Food Costs Could Dampen Chipotle's Expansion Plans on June 9, 2011

Increasing food and commodity costs could affect Chipotle margins and discourage the food chain from opening new restaurants until the costs pressures settle down …

  • ConocoPhillips Calls Off Alaska JV Citing Low Gas Prices on June 8, 2011

Citing low prices and technological revolution, ConocoPhillips and BP scrapped their Denali pipeline joint venture. Strong domestic natural gas supplies closer to the U.S. markets was also cited as a reason for the termination of the project …

Due to a "geotechnical issue" experienced at the mine last year, the company lowered its 2011 sales guidance from 1.9 million to 1.5 million ounces …

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Latest Markets Videos

    Trefis

    Trefis is an interactive financial community structured around trends, forecasts and insights related to some of the most popular stocks in the US. Whereas most finance sites simply give you the facts about where a stock has been and what a company has done in the past, Trefis focuses entirely on the future.

    Learn More