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Trefis Week in Review

The Week in Review

    Below is a summary of the activity on Trefis during the past week that we thought you would find interesting.

    Insights from the Week

    Technology Media & Telecom

    The company reasoned the gross margin decline on lower pricing outlook for its BlackBerry smartphones, as well as the higher-mix of lower-margin PlayBook tablets …

    Oracle is the largest player in the database software market with a market share of close to 50% …

    If Netflix can successfully continue to strike such deals of original content and differentiate itself against other online competitors, it could sustain the subscriber momentum …

    • Upside & Downside Risks for eBay's Stock on March 25, 2011

    Although we already forecast take rates to decline from about 8% in 2010 to 7% by the end of the Trefis forecast period, take rates could potentially decline faster due to heavier discounts being provided to large volume sellers and competitive pressures from other e-commerce sites …

    • The 3 Most Important Product Segments for Apple on March 25, 2011

    Apple launched iPad in April 2010 and it recently launched iPad 2, which got off to a great start during the first weekend of its launch, selling an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 units …

    • Comcast Says Vamos! to Spanish Website on March 25, 2011

    Comcast is trying to differentiate itself against its competitors in the hopes of stopping subscriber losses by focusing itself on a rapidly growing and important demographic while tapping into the current trend of content moving online …

    • Microsoft Making the Right Moves with Bing Search on March 24, 2011

    In August 2010, Bing began powering Yahoo searches. The move gives Microsoft access to Yahoo's search queries, which can help improve the technology powering Bing and ultimately yield improved search results …

    • SanDisk Calls for 200M Tablets by 2014 on March 24, 2011

    With the expected storage in tablet devices to be as high as 4-5x the storage on mobile phones, we now have to increase the global mobile phone unit shipments by 4x times to approximate the expected impact of 205 million tablet sales in 2014 …

    • The 3 Most Important Product Segments for Akamai on March 24, 2011

    Apart from simply delivering the content, Akamai offers a variety of value-added services for its e-commerce customers to improve site performance and better target ads …

    • How Much Will Suppliers Gain from iPad 2 in 2011 on March 24, 2011

    Based on our estimate of 20 million iPad 2 units sold in 2011, we have arrived at the estimate of $2.5 billion revenues for LG Display from the iPad 2 in 2011 …

    • The New Side of OpenTable on March 24, 2011

    Full service restaurant owners would clearly prefer OpenTable over Groupon for selling their discount coupons, as it addresses their requirement for a more focused target audience …

    • Competition from Google and Facebook Hitting Yahoo Ad Revenues on March 24, 2011

    Yahoo is losing ground to Facebook and Google. By shutting down under-performing sites, Yahoo further risks losing a considerable number of loyal users, which exceeds 600 million at present …

    • The 3 Most Important Revenue Streams for Facebook on March 24, 2011

    The Facebook ad system is largely self-serve and provides real-time feedback on the size of the target audience and the suggested bid range to achieve impressions …

    • Uncertain Impact from NYT's New Digital Subscription Service on March 23, 2011

    As discussed in our previous analysis, although the new service will provide incremental subscription revenues to the company, the paywall could reduce the number of page views on its site …

    • Symantec's Fighting for Market Share with New Initiatives on March 23, 2011

    Symantec mentioned that it continues to expand its Norton offerings into alternative channels such as LG Electronics and Adobe, which is helping it expand its customer base …

    • Strategic Acquisition Could Give Dish a Push in Market Share on March 23, 2011

    This move could also give Dish an edge against its direct competitors and revive the company from its recent struggles with subscriber growth …

    • Supply-Related Issues from Japanese Earthquake Could Hit iPad Sales on March 23, 2011

    While our forecast remains conservative compared to this estimate, we believe that potential supply constraints could push the realized total sales volume towards our 24 million unit estimate …

    • Should We Be Worried About Salesforce's Rising Operating Expenses? on March 23, 2011

    Free cash flow often matters most to investors, and in the case of Salesforce.com, the rapid rise in expenses could add risk to our $116 price estimate for the company's stock …

    • The Race for 4G: AT&T Buys T-Mobile on March 23, 2011

    In the short-term, the acquisition will help expand AT&T's market share by a significant amount, but it will also put pressure on data ARPU and margins …

    • A Bright Outlook for Akamai's Revenue per Media Customer on March 23, 2011

    Growth in online media consumption and a broader shift in video quality to HD are two key drivers that should propel growth in Akamai's revenues …

    • Salesforce.com's Development Platform Could Become a Major Force on March 22, 2011

    Salesforce.com's presence in the cloud computing space outside of the CRM software market is currently small, with few meaningful revenue opportunities until now …

    • Verizon Waives Activation Fee on Tablets to Drive Adoption on March 21, 2011

    Those who might have been interested in trying the 3G plans on tablets but have hesitated on costs, now have one more reason to get the data plan a try …

    (Trefis Pro Exclusive) Consumer, Retail, Airlines & Automotive

    • The 3 Most Important Business Segments for Wynn Resorts on March 25, 2011

    Wynn Resorts offers table games to high rollers/VIPs in Macau, where VIP baccarat gaming forms the most substantial chunk of casino revenues …

    • South America's Contribution to Ford's Stock Value on March 25, 2011

    The major drivers for this growth have been economic environment and demographics, relatively low inflation in recent years, growth in per capita income, low vehicle ownership rates and a young population …

    • The 4 Most Important Products for Coca Cola on March 25, 2011

    Diet Coke is the 'sugar free' version of Coca Cola Classic and the second most widely sold soft drink for the company …

    • Ranking the 3 Most Important Locations for Las Vegas Sands on March 24, 2011

    VIP baccarat tables form the most substantial chunk of LVS' gaming revenues in Macau. VIP baccarat tables form the most substantial chunk of LVS' gaming revenues in Macau …

    • The 4 Most Important Product Segments for Kraft on March 24, 2011

    As consumers gravitate towards healthier foods, companies like Kraft that have very limited presence in natural and organic foods could feel pressure …

    • Best Buy's U.S. Stores are More Than 3x as Valuable as its International Stores on March 24, 2011

    We project that the U.S. revenue per square foot figure will increase in the years ahead, with the international store figure remaining relatively flat …

    • Russia's Contribution to Ford's Stock Value on March 24, 2011

    Russia introduced a new automotive industrial regime in February 2011 to lower import duties on automotive components for the next eight years for qualified automotive manufacturers …

    • Asia is Key to McDonald's Growth Outlook on March 24, 2011

    McDonald's is looking for growth in fast growing emerging markets where the recent economic downturn has had much less of an impact on consumer spending …

    • Is Colgate a Buffett Type Stock? on March 23, 2011

    Consumer staples and necessities gel well with Buffet's overall investment criteria of strong free cash flow, low debt and wide moats …

    • Nike's Earnings Re-Iterate Gross Margin Pressure on March 23, 2011

    We think that gross margins will take another year to recover as Nike gradually implements price increases to offset the impact of added costs …

    • Pepsi Looking Back to Move Forward in Battle for Soft Drink Market Share on March 23, 2011

    Although Pepsi's Frito Lay products have been doing well, the company has been losing significant market share in carbonated soft drinks, most notably its flagship Pepsi brand …

    • Coach's Handbag Profit Margin Key to Outlook on March 23, 2011

    We believe Coach could cut down its operating expenses as efficiencies of scale are established in addition to better profitability from heavy investments relating to its expansion in international markets …

    • P&G's Japan Efforts Can Help Grow its Asian Business on March 22, 2011

    While China and India have clearly been P&G's focus as it embarked on its ambitious goal of acquiring one billion additional consumers by 2014-15, Japan never lost its prominence in P&G's portfolio and in fact doubled P&G's sales in the past decade …

    • Walgreen's Rationale for Selling its Benefits Business on March 22, 2011

    Our base estimates for Walgreens project a 6.4% year-on-year growth in the number of drugstores reaching 12,600 stores the at the end of our forecast period …

    • LOFT Stores Represent Nearly 30% of AnnTaylor's Stock Value on March 22, 2011

    The LOFT brand has grown faster than the Ann Taylor brand in recent years, as AnnTaylor has converted some of its Ann Taylor Stores into LOFT stores …

    • Estee Lauder: The Road Ahead on March 21, 2011

    Estee Lauder also plans on limiting innovation to fewer and bigger product launches, which shall also optimize the corresponding marketing spending …

    (Trefis Pro Exclusive) Financial Services & Energy and Natural Resources

    • The 5 Most Important Divisions for JPMorgan on March 25, 2011

    At the end of 2009 , JPMorgan had more than 145 million cards in circulation meeting nearly $328 billion worth of spending needs …

    • Rising Oil Prices Create Upside for Exxon Stock on March 25, 2011

    We estimate that Exxon Mobil will earn about $80 per barrel in 2011, but this number could prove conservative given recent events …

    • Rising Copper Prices are Good News for Aluminum Producer Alcoa on March 25, 2011

    Alcoa predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at their current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global refined copper market …

    • Long-Term Concerns for Freeport on High Copper Prices on March 25, 2011

    Copper was selling at less than $1.3 per pound in December 2008. But in the last 2 years, the price has increased by more than 250% to reach its current high of $4.6 per pound …

    • 4 Key Underpinnings to MasterCard's Stock on March 25, 2011

    The number of mobile payment users have been rising fast with 351 million users in 2009 which is estimated to reach 1.06 billion by 2014 at a compound annual growth rate of 20.5% …

    • The 3 Most Important Businesses for BP on March 24, 2011

    BP's midstream activities involve the ownership and management of crude oil and natural gas pipelines, processing facilities and export terminals …

    • The 3 Most Important Product Segments for SunPower on March 24, 2011

    In view of the recent events in Japan, and if the adoption of solar outpaced our current estimates to reach 450 MW by 2013, this would add around 10% to our price estimate with a price estimate …

    • E-Trade Sells Kobren, Focuses on Brokerage Business on March 24, 2011

    The most direct impact for E-Trade is the $1 billion reduction in the value of its interest-earning assets for the undisclosed sum it received …

    • JPMorgan Makes a Big Bet With $20 Billion Loan to AT&T on March 24, 2011

    We expect JPMorgan to gain market share of the global M&A market as the AT&T deal would significantly boost JPMorgan's reputation in the market especially among the clients for whom JPMorgan is willing to take huge risks …

    • Japan Exposure Won't Shake RBS on March 24, 2011

    While the total could be affected if RBS decides to unwind its position in these investments, the fact that RBS had an asset portfolio of $189 billion in 2010 suggests that the impact of this scenario would be limited …

    • Japanese Demand for Natural Gas will Benefit Anadarko on March 24, 2011

    About 30% of Japan's electricity comes from the nuclear power plants and so demand for natural gas in Japan may rise to compensate for the loss of nuclear power …

    • Positive Outlook for MetLife Annuity Sales on March 24, 2011

    As the stock markets improved and the economy showed signs of growth, consumers returned to variable annuities that provide regular payments of which the value depends on performance of the underlying investments …

    • Oil vs. Natural Gas - Which Way Should Exxon Mobil Lean? on March 24, 2011

    And it absolutely makes sense for Exxon Mobil to cash in on the premium that oil commands now, and will continue to for years to come, until natural gas prices can catch up on the back of rising demand …

    • Visa Ventures Into Personal Payments on March 23, 2011

    Visa has partnered with CashEdge and Fiserv to provide this service where a customer can enter a 16-digit Visa account number, phone number or e-mail address to send funds directly to that account …

    • Goldman's Asset Management Move in India Presents Stock Upside on March 23, 2011

    Though Goldman has held an asset-management license in India since 2008, these operations have been limited to providing research for offshore funds that invest in Indian and other emerging-market stocks …

    • Almost 40% of State Street's Stock is Custody & Admin Services on March 22, 2011

    As the fixed costs incurred on infrastructure and technology setup get diluted over a larger asset pool and investor base, we expect the investments servicing & administration fee (%) to decline as custodians compete for assets …

    • 3 Key Trends to Watch for Wells Fargo on March 22, 2011

    As interest rates rise slowly back to historical levels beyond 2011 with improvement in economic environment, Wells Fargo's interest income will be positively impacted …

    • Chuck Adds optionsXpress to Schwab's Portfolio on March 22, 2011

    The acquisition will give Schwab access to the 379,000 client accounts and $7.9 billion in client assets which optionsXpress reported in 2010 …

    • Trefis Picks of the Week for Financials, Energy & Natural Resources on March 21, 2011

    MetLife announced that it invested, through its private securities group, $10.4 billion in corporate debt private placements, project financings and lease equity investments in 2010 …

    Summaries of Trefis Members' Recent Forecasts

    • Nvidia Challenges But AMD Still Leader in GPU Market for Notebooks on March 25, 2011

    AMD's recent Apple deal win, in which AMD's graphics will be used in Apple's high end MacBook Pro versions, is a positive for the company …

    • ArcelorMittal is a Crucial Customer for Cliffs on March 25, 2011

    We expect a gradual reduction in the quantity of steel sold to ArcelorMittal, given that the renewal of umbrella agreement between ArcelorMittal and Cliffs seems unlikely, and also as ArcelorMittal focuses on expanding its iron-ore production capacity globally …

    • Estee Lauder's Skin Care Business Can Brighten Outlook on March 23, 2011

    Focus on R&D spending and advertising efforts on promoting its skin care business are likely to go a long way in boosting Estee Lauder's share and profits …

    Strong R&D capabilities have enabled Suntech to develop advanced process technologies and to manufacture cost effectively and on a large scale …

    The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


    The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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