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Treasury yields are a bearish sign

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Topline U.S. economic numbers have been deteriorating a bit in quality but are nowhere near poor. So why are Treasury yields back at their lows for the year? The fact is that with bond yields sliding, the S&P 500 -- as reflected by SPY ( quote ) is only down 2.2%. That indicates that either the bond market has gotten ahead or that the stock market is behind the curve. Neither scenario is especially attractive, and that is why I am negative. On the commodity front, Glencore closed Friday below its flotation price. While it would be hard to call the biggest IPO in London history "broken," it definitely reflects a sense that the Glencore sold out at real close to the top of the recent commodity cycle. Remember the Blackstone Group ( BX , quote ) IPO. Same thing: they were the smartest guys in their respective "room" and they timed their IPO exquisitely. Meanwhile, the dollar has not even begun to fight but is alarmingly up 4.5% so far from its lows. As I noted three weeks ago , a move up to 76 on the DXY ( quote ) is only the beginning here, taking us back to early April. From here, 76.40 is the March level where we should see our first resistance test. If DXY clears that hurdle, 78.13 will be a more significant test at the 200-day moving average. European issues have just been kicked down the road and we see this in the way they will trade the EU banks.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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