Earnings Release Date: 09/19/2013
Avg. Extended-Hours Dollar Volume: $251,182,294
Earnings Sensitivity (up or down): 5.9%
TIBCO Software Inc. ( TIBX ) is due to issue its quarterly earnings report after the close today. Given its history, traders can expect very active trading in the upcoming After-hours session immediately following the company's release of its quarterly earnings. An analysis of historical premarket and after-hours trading activity and liquidity conditions in TIBX following an earnings release indicates that the price change in the extended hours is likely to be of significant value in forecasting additional price movement in the following regular session.
Analysts at MidnightTrader have tracked how TIBX's stock price has reacted to quarterly earnings events the past both in the after-hours and following regular session. The result of that study is below.
Over the last year, when shares of TIBX rose in the extended-hours session in reaction to its earnings announcement, history shows that 25% of the time (1 out of the last 4 quarters) the stock posted additional gains in the following regular session by an average of 3.60%.
Over that same historical period, when shares of TIBX dropped in the extended-hours in reaction to its earnings announcement, history shows that 25% of the time over the last 4 quarters the stock dropped further, adding to the extended-hours losses by an average of 0.00% by the following regular session close.
Our analysis of over a decade of company specific earnings related news and price data on over 5,000 US companies demonstrates that earnings event related trading opportunities can exist for those trading in the after-hours and premarket sessions. Certain stocks demonstrate a historical tendency to either underprice or overreact to earnings news in the extended-hours (the time when companies typically release earnings) relative to the following regular session close.
This report was created using historical data and analysis provided by the Midnight Trader Pro service at MidnightTrader.com.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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