Bitcoin continues to trade in a tightening range despite rising regulatory crackdowns on the world’s largest crypto exchange as experts predict a bearish market while whale transactions continue to accelerate.
The Fundamental Look
With Bitcoin stuck in the $30k - $40k range for eight straight weeks, traders are scouring historical data to forecast how the market will move. The market has been moving rather slowly as regulatory concerns resurface, with several countries pushing for more stringent measures against cryptos. (See Bitcoin stock comparison on TipRanks)
The massive crackdown on the world’s largest exchange, Binance, in the UK, Japan, Canada, and the US, has also influenced the market sentiment to an extent. The good news, though, is that Bitcoin is still settled well within a holding pattern.
As Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range, options traders are taking high-risk strategies to generate returns from slow-moving market conditions, leading to a drop in Bitcoin’s implied volatility and price. Meanwhile, 5,000 BTC shorts were added on the Bitfinex exchange on Thursday, July 8, suggesting that pessimism among traders is building.
In other news, American financial giant Capital Group bought a 12% stake in Bitcoin-exposed MicroStrategy, giving them exposure to MicroStrategy’s more than 105,000 Bitcoin sitting in reserves. Meanwhile, Visa, the leading card service provider, has approved Australian startup, CryptoSpend, to issue debit cards that allow users to spend Bitcoins.
Another event worth mentioning is that Osprey’s Bitcoin Trust (OBTC) has filed its application to become an SEC reporting company, a move that could place it as a direct competitor to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). In adoption news, Saquon Barkley, the running back star of New York Giants, announced on Joe Pompliano’s new YouTube show that he will be taking all of his future endorsement money in Bitcoin.
Whales of the Week
- July 9: 4,000.000 BTC moved from multiple addresses to Binance
- July 9: 2,937.132 BTC moved between unknown wallets
- July 13: 3,000.030 BTC moved from Binance to an unknown wallet
- July 12: 3,000.000 BTC moved from multiple addresses to Bitfinex
- July 12: 3,129.098 BTC moved from multiple addresses to Xapo
- July 12: 3,804.000 BTC moved between unknown wallets
- July 15: 13,967.214 BTC moved from multiple addresses to an unknown wallet
The Technical Take on Bitcoin
From July 9th to July 15th, Bitcoin fell modestly against the US dollar, sliding 2.75%, while outperforming major peers over the period after Cardano slipped -8.11% and Ethereum tumbled -8.33%.
On a shorter-term basis, the pair is currently trending downwards within an equidistant channel pattern, adding to the downside bias near-term as BTCUSD continues to trend beneath its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, on a more medium-term basis, prices remain relatively sideways in a narrow range between $31,500 and $34,650.
In the meantime, key support lies at $32,350 and $30,000, with any dip below the latter support likely to drive prices to $28,500. On the upside, resistance rests at $35,700 and $37,350, with any break above $38,000 helping pave the way towards a retest of $40,000.
BTCUSD trading volumes continued to fall over the period, increasing speculation that a more pronounced directional breakout could be forthcoming despite the pair breaking below the uptrend line of the symmetrical triangle pattern.
Disclosure: Reuben Jackson held no position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article at the time of publication.
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