Today, crude oil is lower with the October contract trading at $46.69 area. The price is down 2.91% on the the day. The low traded to $46.45.
What are the technicals saying?
Looking at the daily chart, the price is currently trading under the 100 day MA at the $46.95 level. Last week the MA was breached to the upside, and the closes have been above that MA since that day. The price yesterday dipped below the MA line, but found buyers. A close below and staying below would be more bearish technically.
What needs to be done to give the sellers move comfort is to get back below the $46.49 level. This is the midpoint of the move down from the June (year) high.
When the price moved above the 100 day MA last week, it also moved above the 50% retracement level at roughly the same level. Today, those two technical levels are a bit wider apart (about $0.46). Today, one was broken but the 50% was quickly breached only to have the price move back above.
So there is a battle going on. Will the sellers take more control and push lower or will the move below the 100 day MA be short lived.
Drilling down into the hourly chart, is it showing any other technical clues?
Looking at it, the 200 hour MA held support in yesterday's trading. The price bounced. Today there was another test of the MA line and a more modest bounce (the price stayed below the 100 hour MA - currently at $47.95). Subsequently, the 200 hour MA has been broken AND successfully tested (it is at $47.13). That is showing some interest by the sellers to put a lid on the corrective rally off the 50% support on the daily chart.
With the price below the 100 day MA at $46.95 and the 200 hour MA (currently at $47.13), the bears have taken more control from the buyers. Stay below and we should see the 50% level broken with the next targets at the $45.77 and $44.66 levels respectively. They represent the 38.2% and 50% of the move up from the August low. Get below the month's midpoint and the see saw flips even further to the bearish side for oil.
Key area. Bears more in control. We will see if they can keep it in the new trading day.
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