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Sunrun (RUN) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Sunrun Inc. RUN is set to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Feb 25, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company witnessed an earnings surprise of 1,300.00%. In the trailing four quarters, Sunrun delivered earnings surprise of 90.51%, on average.

Let's take a closer look at the factors likely to influence the company’s upcoming quarterly results.

Factors to Consider

Although Sunrun experienced lower order volumes initially during the pandemic, over the past few months, a modest recovery in that situation has been observed. Notably, the company witnessed sales productivity improvement of around 40% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with the year-ago period, along with solid customer growth. Considering the fact that demand in the solar market has been rising lately, we expect the aforementioned trend to have boosted Sunrun’s revenues in the fourth quarter as well.

Sunrun Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Sunrun Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Sunrun Inc. price-eps-surprise | Sunrun Inc. Quote

Moreover, following the Vivint Solar acquisition last year, the company has been able to more than double its battery attachment rate in California, which in turn is expected to have contributed favorably to its fourth-quarter revenues, as a whole. Further, rapid adoption of electric vehicles in recent times must have also benefited the quarterly top-line performance.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter sales is pegged at $316.9 million, which indicates a 30% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The company earlier announced its expectation of witnessing solid margin expansion in the fourth quarter driven by higher order volumes, thereby benefitting its bottom line. However, integration costs related to

its Vivint Solar acquisition might have weighed on Sunrun’s overall earnings performance in the fourth quarter.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 7 cents per share, implying a deterioration of 30% from the year-ago quarter’s reported earnings.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Sunrun this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But this is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -129.79%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Sunrun currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Recent Solar Releases

Enphase Energy ENPH reported fourth-quarter 2020 adjusted earnings of 51 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents by 27.5%.

SunPower Corp. SPWR reported adjusted earnings of 14 cents per share for fourth-quarter 2020, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 10 cents by 40%.

An Upcoming Solar Release

FirstSolar FSLR is set to release fourth-quarter 2020 results on Feb 25.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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