Ever since Halloween, stocks have been on a fast and furious rally. And we believe that today’s official December jobs report confirms that stocks will keep soaring into Christmas.
Why are we so bullish?
Well, throughout 2023, everyone thought that the U.S. economy would tip into a recession. But it hasn’t. And the data increasingly suggests that it won’t anytime soon.
As the economy keeps avoiding a recession, stocks are likely to keep soaring as they climb the proverbial “wall of worry.”
And it all comes back to the U.S. labor market.
Fresh Jobs Data Shows A Labor Market on Solid Footing
The labor market is the bedrock of the U.S. economy. So long as people have jobs and incomes, they’ll keep spending. And so long as people keep spending, the economy will keep turning.
Today, we found out that the U.S. economy added an impressive 199,000 jobs in November. That’s a very good number. Throughout the 2010s, labor market growth averaged ~200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the labor market is growing at a very “normal” pace right now.
Importantly, recessions don’t emerge with “normal” labor market conditions.
Before the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. labor market was adding just about 50,000 new jobs per month.
And throughout the latter half of 2000, before the dot-com crash, the U.S. labor market was adding just about 70,000 new jobs per month.
Typically, the U.S. labor market starts to show some major cracks before a recession emerges.
And it isn’t showing many cracks right now.
The Final Word
Indeed, over the past six months, U.S. labor market growth has averaged about 200,000 new jobs per month.
That is indicative of a healthy labor market.
That means that a recession isn’t coming anytime soon – and that stocks should keep rallying.
Is your portfolio prepared for it?
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