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Stocks To Watch: Wake-Up Call For The IPO Market

By SA Stocks To Watch :

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the next week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning.

The sleepy IPO market could get a jolt at the end of the week as Dropbox ( DBX ) is expected to price its IPO and begin trading. Dropbox is targeting a valuation of about $7.6B. A confidential slide released last week revealed that the company expects long-term gross margins as high as 76% to 78% and operating margins of 18% to 20%. The reception by investors to Dropbox's public debut could be key for other tech IPO aspirants such as Spotify ( SPOT ), Lyft (LYFT), Docusign (ESIGN), 23andMe ( DNA ), Adyen (ADYEN) - as well what could be the blockbuster of the bunch in Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi's (XI) public debut. Zscalar's ( ZS ) huge post-IPO pop yesterday showed that the investors are still keeping tabs on tech IPOs. Across the broader market, the FOMC meets next week and there's at least some potential for a high-profile Trump cabinet exit. The FOMC meeting will include Chairman Jerome Powell's highly-anticipated first presser, while in regard to the White House, there's a consensus with analysts that National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster staying in place is a positive for equity markets. Before next week's events fire off, there's St. Patrick's Day to enjoy today.

Notable earnings reports: Oracle ( ORCL ) on March 19; FedEx (FDX) and Lennar (LEN) on March 20; General Mills (GIS), PVH (PVH), Five Below (FIVE) and JA Solar (JASO) on March 21; Nike (NKE) [with a potentially compelling conference call], Micron (MU), Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Accenture (ACN) on March 22; Finish Line (FINL) on March 23. See Seeking Alpha's Earnings Calendar for the complete list.

IPOs expected to price: Dropbox, Sunlands Online Education Group (STG) and PolyPid (POLY) on March 22.

Analyst quiet period expirations: Farmmi (FAMI) on March 21.

IPO lockup expirations: Best (BSTI), Zai Lab (ZLAB), Celcuity (CELC), Krystal Biotech (KRYS), Despegar.com (DESP) on March 19; TDH (PETZ) and Oasis Midstream Partners (OMP) on March 20; Secco (SECO) on March 21.

Tariff talk: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is due to testify on trade and tariffs before the House Ways and Means Committee on March 22. The usual suspects to watch for tariff-related swings include U.S. Steel (X), AK Steel (AKS), Nucor (NUE), ArcelorMittal (MT), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Worthington Industries (WOR), Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS), Commercial Metals (CMC), Kaiser Aluminum (KALU), Cannon Exploration (CNEX) and Alcoa (AA). Automakers General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have also been sensitive to tariff news.

Telsey Advisory Group 10th Annual Spring Consumer Conference 2018: Senior management from a number of prominent consumer-facing companies will be at the event, including reps from Jack in the Box (JACK), Ascena Retail (ASNA), Chico's FAS (CHS), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Deluxe (DLX), Eldorado Resorts (ERI), Everi (EVRI), iPic Entertainment (IPIC), Kohl's (KSS), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Macy's (M) and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH).

M&A watch: The high-profile AT&T (T) trial against the Department of Justice over the Time Warner (TWX) merger begins on March 19. The latest odds from MoffettNathanson give AT&T a 50% chance of prevailing. While a decision isn't expected for six to eight weeks, evidence presented on pay-TV prices and market competition could impact a variety of other media stocks.

Toy story: The toys sector is still reverberating from the bankruptcy of Toys "R" Us. Though the filing was highly anticipated, the exact path the retailer takes in winding down its stores and operations could greatly influence Hasbro (HAS), Mattel (MAT), Funko (FNKO) and JAKKS Pacific (JAKK). As far as where those toy product sales go, Jefferies estimated that 40% would go to Amazon (AMZN) and 30% to Walmart (WMT), while prior forecasts from analysts showed Target (TGT) with a sizable grab due to its geographic overlap. Expect more number crunching on toy sales from analysts in the upcoming week.

FDA watch: BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) and Asdendis Pharma (ASND) are in the spotlight on March 22 as a FDA Pediatric Advisory Committee and Endocrinologic and Metabolic Drugs Advisory Committee takes up discussion on "major objectives of a phase 3 drug development program" for the treatment of children with achondroplasia.

Analyst/investor day meetings: Entegris (ENTG) on March 20; Electro Scientific Industries (ESIO) on March 21.

Annual meetings Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) is hosting an investor event at the offices of Keurig. An overview on the combined company's strategy is anticipated. Other notable meeting on the calendar include CVS Health (CVS) on March 20 and Starbucks (SBUX) on March 21.

Box office: Disney's (DIS) Black Panther is expected to top Warner Bros.' Tomb Raider starring Alicia Vikander to knock out its fifth straight week atop the box office charts. 20th Century Fox's Avatar in 2009-2010 was the last film to pull off the impressive feat.

Barron's mentions: Gap (GPS) is identified as a stock that could run up 25% on the back of the Old Navy business, while investor concerns on Allergan (AGN) are called overdone. In a piece on Broadcom (AVGO) - Xilinx (XLNX), Micron, Microchip Technology (MCHP), Marvell Technology Group (MRVL), Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) and Analog Devices (ADI) all make the list of potential Plan B options for the company after the Trump Administration snub on Qualcomm (QCOM). Randall Forsythe asks in a feature article if a Bear Stearns scenario could happen again? He reminds that the Senate bumped up the "too big to fail" classification on a financial institution to $250B from a prior level of $50B. His deja-vu scenario is a little hard to ignore.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Estimize.com and Nasdaq.com.

See also Retire Rich: How To Buy Low And Sell High on seekingalpha.com

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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