Sterling hits $1.26; recovers from 20-day low vs stronger euro

Credit: REUTERS/THOMAS WHITE

By Elizabeth Howcroft

LONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - The pound rose above $1.26 on Monday and recovered from an early-morning, 20-day low against the stronger euro, but investors remained bearish as the bleak economic outlook and Brexit risks weighed on the currency.

Since Friday, European Union leaders have been meeting to thrash out plans for an EU-wide coronavirus recovery fund. Signs of progress in negotiations saw the euro touch a 19-week high, pushing euro-sterling to a 20-day high around 0604 GMT.

As a new round of Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU begin, hopes for a trade deal in time for the year-end expiry of the transition period following the UK's departure from the bloc are fading fast.

"There will be a deal but it will be a hard Brexit, probably worse than a Canada deal," said Kaspar Hense, a portfolio manager at Bluebay Asset Management.

Hense is bearish on the pound versus both dollar and euro but took some profit on his short cable position at $1.25 on Friday because he said EU leaders reaching an agreement could boost euro-dollar, to which cable is correlated.

"The growth outlook looks pretty bad. London is in focus as well as the (Brexit) deal probably will be rather harsh especially on the services side," he said.

"These growth detractions are not going away," he said, adding that, from a structural perspective, the pound-dollar exchange rate could slide to parity over the longer term.

Versus the dollar, sterling changed hands at $1.2601 at 1032 GMT, up 0.3% since New York's close, having fallen overnight before recovering from around 0400 GMT GBP=D3.

Against the euro, the pound was at 90.89 pence per euro, broadly flat on the day. EURGBP=D3. Euro-sterling hit a 20-day high of 91.38 pence at 0604 GMT.

The speculative market's net short position on the pound got smaller from a second week in a row in the week to July 14, according to CFTC futures data. But the market is still as bearish on the pound as it was in December 2019. 1096742NNET

Britain's COVID-19 death toll is the highest in Europe, but the country has begun to lift lockdown measures as case numbers and infection rates fall.

Last week, the Bank of England's governor, Andrew Bailey, said Britain's economy was starting to recover but the longer-term outlook was unclear.

Nearly half of Britain's biggest companies think it will take until the second half of 2021 before business recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, survey data on Monday showed.

Tensions between China and Britain escalated over the weekend, with British newspapers reporting that London will on Monday suspend its extradition treaty with Hong Kong.

The Chinese ambassador said China would respond resolutely to any sanctions imposed by the British government on Chinese officials.

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(Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

((Elizabeth.Howcroft@thomsonreuters.com; +44 02075427104;))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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