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Today, we started out by examining the price action in global equity indices. Volatility is extremely low and thus making short-term trading difficult without sizable gyrations to operate off of. The S&P 500 has been very quiet in recent sessions after last Monday/Tuesday rally. Generally, it appears to be consolidating for a move towards record highs (I know, bold call) and join the Nasdaq 100 which has been a tear. Keep in mind, unlike the S&P 500 which has far more constituents, the Nasdaq 100 is dominated by a few tickers (GOOG, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, APPL), and with us amid earnings season the index can make big moves while the rest of the market sits idle. As we've been seeing.
The DAX is also consolidating well after the reaction to the first round of the French elections. It's well supported just below 12400, with minor resistance above at a pair of top-side trend-lines. Overall, it's positioned for higher prices in the near-term on a breakout above 12485. The CAC 40 we're staying away from until at least after the May 7 run-off election. The FTSE 100 is in limbo, trading between the June trend-line and heavy resistance around 7300. It could continue to bobble around between the lines, and as it stands, with the index not having any real direction bias or following the broader theme of higher global stocks, it's the least favorite of the bunch at this time. The Nikkei is playing catch-up after spending most of the year-to-date as a major laggard. Looking for 19600s and how it reacts there; will sellers show up or can it finally break towards 20k?
Crude oil is attempting to hold onto a 13-month trend-line after putting in a key reversal bar last week. It is important it holds above 48, else the triple bottoms from March will come into play around 47. A break below the trend-line and the March bottoms would likely lead to an extended move lower. For now, though, with support at hand our bias is neutral to bullish.
Gold and silver have been weak, especially silver. Gold broke down through 1260, and is looking headed to towards the trend-line off the December low near 1240. Silver has been beaten down hard, and is trying to hold around the March swing-low, but a lot of damage has been done. We'll be watching to see how it responds; a bounce might be a selling opportunity if it unfolds with limited vigor.
For full technical considerations, please see the video above.
See our quarterly forecasts for FX, equity indices, and commodities to see where our team of analysts see markets heading for the remainder of Q2.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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