Simple Market Timing Strategies That Work - October 15, 2019
Being that unique investor who has the power to consistently time the market and always make a profit is the dream for most people who trade their own accounts.
In fact, even among long-term investors who don't attempt to time the markets, being able to call the top of the market is a skill that many think they possess. This misguided confidence is often driving investors to sit on the sidelines and wait it out for better market opportunities.
Giving up too soon at the first sign of inconvenience often leads to missed opportunities among numerous individuals who try to trade on their own retirement. For example, many investors have forfeited immense chances waiting for the Consumer Staples stocks to correct, only see the latter achieve new highs, move higher and drive the buyer markets to record levels: Associated British Foods PLC (ASBFY), Ahold NV (ADRNY), Embotelladora Andina S.A. (AKO.B), Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. (APRN), Aramark (ARMK)
Fear and greed often lead investors into behavioral traps since most investors are followers who react, rather than anticipate market moves.
Productive market timing requires three key parts: 1) A dependable sign for when to get in and out of stocks. 2) The ability to follow up on the sign rapidly and precisely. 3) The ability to be completely unemotional and trust in the signal no matter the current market environment.
Market timing is commonly perceived as the ability to guess the exact market top or bottom and make moves accordingly. However, there is a less common, rather straightforward market timing strategy that has been utilized effectively by insightful financial specialists like Warren Buffet for a considerable length of time.
Rule 1: Never try and time tops and bottoms.
Surrendering the objective to time the tops and bottoms gives you the adaptability to benefit and increase your odds to secure profits over the long-term, even if your calls aren't always right.
Rule 2: Make an effort not to sell in the midst of little crashes. Muster the courage to trust your gut and buy best in class stocks at a discount.
Warren Buffett has made a great part of his fortune due to this simple rule. He warns not to sell during small crashes, and weather the storm by focusing on the long term.
There is a major distinction between a financial crash and a mild market reset. No matter what happens in the stock market, chances are that the stocks you own will eventually come back to their pre - crash value; hanging on to your original positions, or opportunistically averaging down, during market downs can be the shrew distraction to take. Warren Buffett takes this thought a notch higher and frequently goes on a buying binge when markets turn, purchasing additional shares of his favorite stocks at a major markdown and tuning in to his own recommendation of being greedy when others are scared, and being scared when others are greedy.
When It Comes to Trading Your Retirement, A Risk Adjusted Trading Strategy Should be Followed
It's just human that many surrender to emotions and attempt and game the framework by timing the market. But consider this: Nobel Laureate William Sharpe found in 1975 that a market timer would have to be accurate 74% of the time to beat a passive portfolio. Even a slight outperformance probably wouldn't be worth the energy - and given that even the experts generally fail at it, market timing shouldn't be your exclusive investing strategy of choice, especially using assets earmarked for your retirement.
Chasing alpha, outsized, short - term returns through market timing and other high - risk bets is acceptable only within a small part of your investable resources, however for your long - term retirement assets a 'risk-adjusted' investment discipline is what largely bodes well.
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Associated British Foods PLC (ASBFY): Free Stock Analysis Report
Embotelladora Andina S.A. (AKO.B): Free Stock Analysis Report
Aramark (ARMK): Free Stock Analysis Report
Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. (APRN): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ahold NV (ADRNY): Free Stock Analysis Report
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