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WMT

Shorts Hold Advantage Trading Wal-Mart off Earnings-Driven Pre-Market Declines, Longs Still in the Game on Upside Moves

Wal-Mart ( WMT ) is due with its Q4 results in today's pre-market, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to report a profit of $1.53 per share on revenue of $131.8 billion.

In looking back at the long-term session-to-session performance data on WMT following earnings events, we've found the issue has seen 23 instances of adding to its pre-bell trade in follow-on regular session action and 15 events where the stock narrowed. It traded flat in pre-bell action in one event, and we have no data for a 40th quarter.

Looking deeper into the performance data, WMT has recorded an earnings-driven pre-market decline in 21 of the 40 quarters MT Newswires has tracked, adding to its downside in the following regular session in 13 of those events, or 62% of the time. On the plus-side, WMT has recorded an earnings-driven pre-market gain in 17 of the 40 quarters we've tracked, adding to its upside nine times in the follow-on regular session, or 53% of the time, reversing direction in seven events, and once ending flat with the morning move.

On Nov.13, 2014, WMT added 2.2% in pre-bell trade after beating Q3 expectations. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, closing up 4.7%.

On Aug. 14, 2014, WMT dipped 0.29% in pre-market action after matching Q2 expectations but also lowering its FY earnings outlook to in-line to below Street estimates. The stock reversed direction in the regular session, ending up 0.5%.

On May 15, 2014, WMT declined 2.5% in pre-bell trade after reporting a year-over-year decline in Q1 earnings and setting its Q2 EPS view below Street estimates. The stock narrowed its downside slightly in that day's regular session, ending off 2.4%.

On Feb. 20, 2014, WMT shed 2.2% in pre-market trade after beating on Q4 EPS, coming in shy on sales and setting guidance below the Street consensus. The stock cut its downside in that day's regular session, ending down 1.7%.

On Nov. 14, 2013, WMT declined 1.6% in pre-bell trade after missing Q3 revenue expectations. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, ending up 0.2%.

On Aug. 15, 2013, WMT declined 2.5% in pre-bell trade after coming in shy of Q2 revenue expectations and guiding mostly below the Street view for the full year and Q3. The stock edged just lower in that day's regular session, ending down 2.6%.

On May 16, 2013, WMT declined 2.2% in pre-market action after missing Q1 expectations and setting its Q2 view below the Street. The stock cut its downside in that day's regular session, ending down 1.7%.

On Feb. 21, 2013, WMT gained 1.1% in pre-bell trade after beating on Q4 earnings, meeting on sales and setting its Q1 EPS guidance below the Street and its FY 2014 outlook in-line. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, closing up 1.5%.

On Nov. 15, 2012, WMT dropped 2.4% in pre-bell trade after beating Q3 earnings estimates and reaffirming its outlook. The stock moved deeper south in regular session, ending down 3.6%.

On Aug. 16, 2012, WMT declined 2.1% in pre-market trade after beating Q2 earnings estimates but coming in shy on revenue. The stock dropped further in that day's regular session, ending down 3.0%.

On May 17, 2012, WMT advanced 3.4% in pre-market trade after beating on Q1 and setting its Q2 guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock moved higher in that day's regular session, ending up 4.3%.

On Feb. 21, 2012, WMT declined 3.3% in pre-market action after missing Q4 sales expectations. The stock moved further south in that day's regular session, closing down 3.8%.

On Nov. 15, 2011, WMT declined 1.6% in pre-bell action after missing Q3 earnings estimates by a penny and setting in-line guidance. The stock added to its negative trade in that day's regular session, ending down 2.4%.

On Aug. 16, 2011, WMT gained 2.8% in pre-market trade after beating Q2 estimates and raising its outlook. The stock moved higher in that day's regular session, ending up 3.8%.

In the pre-market of May 17, 2011, the stock fell 5.5% after an earnings beat but a same-store sales decline. Shares fell a deeper 7.2% later that day.

On Feb. 22, 2011, WMT declined 2.9% in pre-market action after beating Q4 EPS estimates, coming in shy on sales, and setting mixed guidance. It closed that day's regular session with a slightly wider downside move, off 3%.

On Nov. 16, 2010, WMT gained 1.1% in pre-market trade after meeting Q3 estimates and setting its earnings guidance above the Street view. The stock cut its upside in the follow-on regular session, closing up 0.5%.

On Aug. 17, 2010, WMT edged up 0.7% in pre-bell action after just beating with Q2 EPS and lifting its FY guidance range to straddle Street estimates. The stock firmed modestly higher the following regular session, ending up 1.2%.

On May 18, 2010, the stock gained 1.2% during pre-market trading after beating with Q1 profit but offering a forecast that could disappoint. Shares rose a stronger 1.8% the next day.

In pre-market trading Feb. 18, 2010, the stock fell 1.5% after a Q4 beat but disappointing same-store sales. Shares fell a slightly slimmer 1% during regular trading.

On Nov. 12, 2009, WMT gained 0.8% in pre-bell action on the back of better-than-expected earnings results and earnings guidance that was in-line to above the Street view. The stock lost some of its gain in that day's regular session, ending up 0.5%.

On Aug. 13, 2009, WMT advanced 2.7% in pre-market trade after beating earnings expectations and coming in just shy on revenue. The stock closed the Aug. 13 regular session with the same 2.7% rise.

On May 14, the stock slipped 0.1% in pre-market trading after the company meets with Q1 EPS and guides for Q2 in line. The stock fell 1.8% the next day.

On Feb. 17, 2009, WMT advanced 1.6% in pre-market trade after beating earnings estimates. The stock added to its upside in the regular session, advancing 3.6% by the Feb. 17 closing bell.

On Nov. 13, 2008, WMT beat earnings expectations by a penny and set its guidance just below the then-current Street estimates.

On Aug. 14, 2008, WMT slipped 0.4% in pre-market trade after beating expectations and setting guidance in line with estimates. It turned just slightly into the green in the following regular session, ending up 0.3%.

On May 13, 2008, WMT declined 1.2% in pre-market trade despite beating Q1 expectations and setting guidance in line for its Q2. It headed further south in that day's regular session, losing 2.3% by the closing bell.

On Feb. 19, 2008, WMT gained 1.3% in pre-bell action after topping earnings expectations and setting in-line guidance. It saw much of that early gain evaporate in the regular session, ending the day up a mere 0.4%.

On Nov. 13, 2007, WMT advanced 3.6% in pre-market trade after topping Q3 estimates and setting Q4 guidance in line and FY EPS above forecasts. The stock continued heading higher into the Nov. 13 regular session, ending the day up 6.1%.

On Aug. 14, 2007, WMT declined 4.3% in pre-bell action after it missed Q2 expectations and offered EPS guidance below the Street view. It continued heading south in that day's regular session, closing bell-to-bell trade off 5%.

On May 15, 2007, the stock managed a slim 0.3% gain in the pre-market after reporting EPS in line and revenue just short. The stock reversed to close down 0.4% during the regular trading day.

On Feb. 20, 2007, WMT advanced 2.8% in pre-market action after the company topped earnings expectations and guided mostly in-line. It added to its upside in the following regular session, ending Feb. 20 bell-to-bell play up 3.6%.

On Nov. 14, 2006, WMT advanced 3.2% in pre-market trade after the company beat Street expectations. It saw those gains edge back just a bit between the bells as WMT ended the regular session up 2.8%.

On Aug. 15, 2006, WMT slipped 0.9% in pre-market trading after the company reported results in line with expectations and guided in a range that straddled the Street view. It continued its downward trend in the regular session, losing a slightly deeper 1.2%.

On May 16, 2006, WMT advanced 0.5% in pre-bell trade after beating on earnings and setting mostly in-line guidance. The stock added modestly to its gains in the regular session, rising 1.3% by the closing bell.

On Feb. 21, 2006, WMT edged down 0.6% in pre-market activity after beating expectations but issuing disappointing guidance. The stock saw its downside widen slightly in the regular session, losing 0.7% by the closing bell.

On Nov. 14, 2005, WMT gained 1% in pre-market trade after its Q3 results came in above year ago levels and it guided in-line. It scaled back its upside by the Nov. 14 regular session, rising a slimmer 0.6%.

On Aug. 16, 2005 WMT reported better-than-expected earnings, in-line revenue, and guided for EPS below expectations. The stock declined 1.8% in that day's pre-market trade. The early decline was followed by a more aggressive downside move in regular session as the stock ended the day down 3.1%.

On May 12, 2005 WMT declined 3.6% in pre-market trade after the company missed quarterly expectations. That early downside narrowed between the bells as WMT closed the regular session down 1.9%.

On Feb. 17, 2005 WMT edged up 0.6% in pre-bell trading after the company topped Q4 Street estimates. It failed to generate much more upside enthusiasm in the regular session, and closed bell-to-bell trade with a skimpy 0.1% rise.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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