Screening for Possible Value Traps
Falling into value traps is one of the biggest mistakes value investors make. Value traps tend to appear cheap, but their business internals are deteriorating - the business is destroying value. We are having a very good discussion about how to avoid value traps here. We pointed out that one of the obvious sign of a value trap is declining profit margins, as seen clearly from companies like Research-In-Motion ( RIMM ), Nokia ( NOK ) and RadioShack ( RSH ).
We will release a feature of "Warning Signs" which will warn you if a company has declining profit margins. Using our " All-In-One Screener " we did a simple screen for companies that are having declining profit margins in the technology and consumer service sector. The market cap of the companies is at least $1 billion. These companies have seen declining profit margins over the past five years:
Symbol
Company
Share Price ($)
Market Cap (mil)
CVS
CVS Caremark Corporation
45.94
61576.2
CAH
Cardinal Health, Inc.
43.185
14715.1
OMC
Omnicom Group Inc.
50.09
13237.2
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
36.77
12008.9
HOT
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc
51.11
10004.9
LUV
Southwest Airlines Co.
9.42
7251.1
CSC
Computer Sciences Corporation
23.85
3686.1
NCR
NCR Corporation
24.51
3630.6
WEN
The Wendy's Company
4.77
1863.7
MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
49.8
1775.8
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
32.4
1721.6
CAR
Avis Budget Group Inc.
15.32
1618.7
BGC
General Cable Corporation
27.7
1336.2
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse Inc
18.47
1276
JACK
Jack in the Box Inc.
27.55
1251.8
Some of the margin declines are caused by the structural change of the business. The company may go through acquisition or spin-offs. Some of them do have long-term decline. A few examples here:
Cardinal Health Inc.
Carnival Corporation ( CCL )
Hewlett-Packard Company ( HPQ )
Renowned short-seller Jim Chanos has been shorting HPQ , saying it is a value trap. It does have the sign of it: long-term margin decline:
Will new HP CEO Meg Whitman turn it around? We don't know, and that is again a "too-hard" question to answer. There are plenty of companies that are of higher quality and have sustainable profit margins. Why would we want to bet on it?
"I would rather buy good companies at fair prices than buy fair companies at good prices." Haven't we heard this many times?About GuruFocus: GuruFocus.com tracks the stocks picks and portfolio holdings of the world's best investors. This value investing site offers stock screeners and valuation tools. And publishes daily articles tracking the latest moves of the world's best investors. GuruFocus also provides promising stock ideas in 3 monthly newsletters sent to Premium Members .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
