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Russia gets a quiet bounce – should we get excited?

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The Moscow market just got its second two-day upward move since March. That is not a great track record, but we can still look at the internals for guidance on the future. In fact, even though the MICEX peaked on April 6, the price action was already getting narrow a month before that point. And after that, the volatility got worse, leaving these Russian stocks down 12% from that peak. It looks like only the 200 moving day average is lending this market any real support at the moment -- and in fact, a bounce off that key trend line seems to have been the primary factor in the recent upswing. The MICEX has not dipped below the 200 mda since August 2010, which is when the Russian market started recovering from the crisis. Since then, these stocks have been flying on the way to their big run earlier this year. Now, we are back to around 1% above that line, currently at 1,608. A test to the downside could only give the shorts more fire. But at this point, the 20- and 50-day lines are well above us in the 1,690 to 1,700 range. Not a great time to look for short-term upside from broad ETF portfolios like RSX ( quote ).

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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