Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks are written by the staff of our weekly Kiplinger Letter and are unavailable elsewhere. Click here for a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or for more information.
If you already subscribe to the print edition of the Letter, click here to add e-mail delivery and the digital edition at no extra cost.
Falling gasoline prices helped consumers buy more gasoline and other stuff in August, adjusting for price changes. Inflation-adjusted sales were up 0.2% in August, but that followed three months of declines. Consumers have become more cautious in the current high inflation environment.
E-commerce sales declined 0.7% after a 1.8% jump in July that was helped by the Amazon Prime Day Sale. General merchandise and clothing sales rose modestly after adjusting for inflation. Motor vehicle sales bounced back after July’s decline, but continue to be hurt by long-standing low inventory problems and high prices. Grocery sales adjusted for inflation continued to decline, also hurt by high prices.
Restaurant sales were flat after adjusting for inflation. Restaurant sales had had a strong spring as consumers enjoyed the new freedom of eating out, but inflation-adjusted sales are slowing because higher food and labor costs have forced restaurants to raise their prices.
Going forward, some sales weakness will be the result of consumers switching their buying patterns to more services. But slow economic growth may also make consumers more cautious in their spending in general. With retail inventories already at a high level, that raises the question whether there will be heavy discounting this coming holiday season.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.