As you might know, Janus Henderson Group plc (NYSE:JHG) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.2% to hit US$644m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.88, some 8.6% above whatthe analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results. NYSE:JHG Earnings and Revenue Growth May 1st 2021
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Janus Henderson Group's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$2.63b in 2021, which would reflect a meaningful 10% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 29% to US$2.22 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.57b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.96 in 2021. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Janus Henderson Group after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a pretty serious reduction to per-share earnings expectations.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$34.97, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Janus Henderson Group analyst has a price target of US$42.90 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$29.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Janus Henderson Group shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Janus Henderson Group'shistorical trends, as the 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 is roughly in line with the 17% annual revenue growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.8% per year. So although Janus Henderson Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Janus Henderson Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Janus Henderson Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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