Red Soy Market after Turnaround Tuesday

Soy futures dropped back on Tuesday with beans 1 ½ to 6 ¼ cents lower. The Nov contract was a nickel off the session low, and stayed a net 4 ½ cents higher for the week’s move. The new crop soy/corn ratio was still 2.492 at the settle – which is below the peak but still in +bean acre territory. Soymeal futures closed the session a percent weaker with $2.50 to $4 losses. Soy Oil futures tried staying firm on the day, but faded into the close for 11 to 14 point losses across the front months. 

A pre-report survey showed the average trade guess for soybean carryout at 318.8 mbu, which would be 3.8 mbu looser if realized on Friday. The full range of estimates is from 22 mbu tighter to 40 mbu looser. Traders are also looking for USDA to cut Brazilian soy production by 3.2 MMT in the monthly WASDE, with a 1.3 MMT tighter carryout. 

Brazil’s soybean harvest via AgRural reached 48% finished, which is still 5% points ahead of last year’s pace.  

Yesterday, USDA announced a large private export sale for 126k MT of soymeal to unknown. Most of the purchase was for new crop delivery, though 30k MT is for 23/24. 

Weekly Inspections data showed 1.02 MMT of soybeans were shipped for the week that ended 2/29. That was slightly below last week, but was 470k MT more than the same week last year. Soybean shipments still trail last year’s pace by 8.55 MMT with 34.2 MMT shipped. 

 

Mar 24 Soybeans  closed at $11.40 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $10.90, down 5 7/8 cents,

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $11.49, down 6 cents,

Jul 24 Soybeans  closed at $11.59, down 6 1/4 cents,

Nov 24 Soybeans  closed at $11.44 1/4, down 2 cents,

 

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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