Red Hat ( RHT ) is due with its Q3 results in tonight's after-hours trade and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to post a mean profit of $0.70 per share on revenue of $735 million.
RHT is favoring a pattern of following on with more aggressive, same-direction next-day closing levels following after-hours earnings-events over the last 14 years. The stock has seen more aggressive next-day movement in 31 of the last 55 quarters, or 56% of the time.
Looking deeper into the performance data, RHT performs solidly on both sides of the trades post-earnings. It has advanced in evening action in 29 of the 55 quarters we've tracked, and in 15 of those events, 52% of the time, the stock recorded a more aggressive next-day regular session move.
On the short end of the trade, RHT has recorded a post-earnings after-hours decline in 26 quarters. In 16 of those quarters, 62% of the time, the stock has posted a deeper move into the red in the following day's regular session.
On Sept. 25, 2017, RHT gained 4% in night trade after topping Q2 Street estimates and setting its outlook mostly above the analyst consensus. The stock held the same 4% gain into the Sept. 26 regular session close.
On June 20, 2017, RHT gained 10% in evening trade after beating Q1 expectations and setting its Q2 and FY 2018 outlook above the Street consensus. The stock cut its gains slightly the next day, closing the June 21 regular session up 9.5%.
On March 27, 2017, RHT advanced 5.1% in night trade after topping Q4 revenue estimates, meeting on earnings, and setting mixed guidance. The stock edged slightly higher the next day, closing the March 28 regular session up 5.2%.
On Dec. 21, 2016, RHT declined 9.7% in after-hours trade after missing Q3 revenue expectations, beating on earnings, and setting a mixed Q4 outlook. The stock swooned lower the next day, closing the Dec. 22 regular session down 13.8%.
On Sept. 21, 2016, RHT advanced 5.8% in night trade after posting better-than-expected Q2 results and Q3 guidance above Street estimates. The stock narrowed its gains the next day, ending the Sept. 22 regular session up 3.8%.
On June 22, 2016, RHT dropped 5.6% in after-hours trade after posting Q1 EPS that met expectations, beating on revenue and setting guidance in line to below estimates. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, ending the June 23 regular session down 1.7%.
On March 22, 2016, RHT declined 3.8% in evening trade after beating Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 view in-line to above the analyst consensus. The stock saw added downside the next day, closing the March 23 regular session down 4.2%.
On Dec. 17, 2015, RHT gained 6.6% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations and raising its FY 2016 sales outlook. The stock cut its upside the next day, closing the Dec. 18 regular session with a 3.3% advance.
On Sept. 21, 2015, RHT dipped 0.7% in night trade after beating Q2 expectations and setting its guidance mostly above the Street view. The stock threw off its downside the next day, managing to make it to the flatline by the close on Sept. 22.
On June 18, 2015, RHT declined 1.5% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 Street estimates and setting in-line guidance. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the June 19 regular session up 1%.
On March 25, 2015, RHT advanced 5.2% in night trade after topping Q4 expectations and setting mixed guidance. The stock launched higher the next day, closing the March 25 regular session up 10%.
On Dec. 18, 2014, RHT gained 9.2% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 Street estimates and setting mixed guidance for its Q4 and full year outlook. The stock added to its gains the next day, closing the Dec. 19 regular session up 10.6%.
On Sept. 18, 2014, RHT declined 3% in after-hours trade despite topping Q2 expectations. The stock moved lower the following day, closing the Sept. 19 regular session down 4.5%.
On June 18, 2014, RHT advanced 4% in night trade after beating Q1 estimates. The stock narrowed its gain slightly the next day, closing the June 19 regular session up 3.8%.
On March 27, 2014, RHT dipped 0.6% in after-hours trade after topping Q4 expectations but also setting guidance in line to below Street estimates. The stock tumbled lower the following day, closing the March 28 regular session off 6.9%.
On Dec. 19, 2013, RHT advanced 11.2% in after-hours trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock firmed even higher the next day, closing the Dec. 20 regular session up 14.5%.
On Sept. 23, 2013, RHT declined 6.9% in night trade after topping Q2 expectations but also setting revenue guidance below estimates. The stock was hit for added losses the next day, closing the Sept. 24 regular session down 11.7%.
On June 19, 2013, RHT gained 2.1% in after-hours trade after topping Q1 expectations and setting in-line guidance. The stock reversed direction the next day, ending down 0.7% in the June 20 regular session.
On March 27, 2013, RHT declined 3.5% in after-hours trade after missing Q4 revenue expectations and beating on earnings. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the March 28 regular session up 1.1%.
On Dec. 20, 2012, RHT gained 6% in night trade after beating on Q3 revenue and meeting on earnings. The stock narrowed its upside the following day, ending the Dec. 21 regular session up 4.5%.
On Sept. 24, 2012, RHT declined 2.7% in evening trade after missing Q2 earnings and setting its guidance just below the Street view. The stock added to its negative trade the next day, closing the Sept. 25 regular session off 4.2%.
On June 20, 2012, RHT declined 10.6% in night trade after topping Q1 estimates but also guiding for Q2 results below expectations. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, ending the June 21 regular session off 6.1%
On March 28, 2012, RHT jumped 8.7% in after-hours action after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock charged higher the following day, ending the March 29 regular session up 19.5%.
On Dec. 19, 2011, RHT slumped 10% in after-hours trade after reporting Q3 revenue in line with expectations and beating on earnings. The stock narrowed its downside slightly the next day, ending the Dec. 20 regular session off 8.9%.
On Sept. 21, 2011, RHT gained 6.6% in after-hours trade on the back of better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost a good chunk of its gains the next day, closing the Sept. 22 regular session up 2.9%.
On June 22, 2011, RHT advanced 4% in night trade on the back of better-than-expected Q1 results and guidance above estimates. The stock narrowed its gains the next day, ending the June 23 regular session up 3.5%.
On March 23, 2011, RHT soared 10% in after-hours action after beating Q4 estimates and setting its guidance above the Street view. The stock surged even higher the next day, closing the March 24 regular session up 18.2%.
On Dec. 21, 2010, RHT declined 2.3% in after-hours action after posting mixed Q3 results and setting its guidance above the Street estimates. The stock added slightly to its downside the next day, closing the Dec. 22 regular session down 2.5%.
On Sept. 22, 2010, RHT advanced 3.8% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock surged even higher the following day, closing the Sept. 23 regular session up 9%.
On June 22, 2010, RHT slipped 0.3% in after-hours action after meeting earnings expectations for Q1 and setting its Q2 view in line to above the Street view. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the June 23 regular session up 1.6%.
On March 24, 2010, RHT declined 3% in evening trade after beating quarterly expectations but also issuing mixed guidance. The stock slumped further in the red the following day, closing the March 25 regular session down 5.8%.
On Dec. 22, 2009, RHT gained 6.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations and setting its guidance above the Street view. It lost some of its upside momentum the following day, closing the Dec. 23 regular session up 5.2%.
On Sept. 23, 2009, RHT advanced 5.1% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock leaped higher the following day, ending the Sept. 24 regular session up 12.3%.
On June 24, 2009, RHT edged 0.6% lower despite beating Q1 expectations. It headed deeper south the following day, closing the June 25 regular session down 4.1%.
On March 25, 2009, the stock rose 7.6% during evening trading after RHT beat with results and guided above the Street view. The gain swelled to 17.3% the next day.
On Dec. 22, 2008, the stock advanced 6.1% in the evening session after RHT beat with Q3 profit. The gain improved to 8.5% the next day.
On Sept. 24, 2008, RHT shares dropped 3.6% in after-hours trade despite the company beating expectations. It turned deeper south the following day, losing 8.5% by the close on Sept. 25.
On June 25, 2008, RHT declined 1.3% in after-hours trade despite beating Q1 revenue estimates and meeting on earnings. It dipped further into the red in the following day's regular session, losing 3.5% by the close on June 26.
On March 27, 2008, RHT advanced 7.5% in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected earnings results. The gain was reduced modestly the next day as RHT closed the March 28 regular session up 5.5%.
On Dec. 20, 2007, RHT advanced 7.1% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations. The stock added to its upside in the Dec. 21 regular session, rising 10.2% by the closing bell.
On Sept. 25, 2007, the stock gained 4.4 percent in evening trading after the company reported in line with Q2 earnings. The gain expanded to 5.3% the next day.
On June 27, 2007, RHT fell 1.3% in after hours despite the company's topping Q1 estimates and forecasting Q2 in line with expectations. Shares fell further the next day, closing the regular session down 7.5%.
On March 29, 2007, the stock gained 5.3% in evening trading after meeting with EPS although sales missed. Guidance was largely in line. Shares ended down 0.9% the next day.
On Dec. 21, 2006, RHT jumped 14.9% in night trade after beating Q3 estimates and issuing Q4 guidance above Street views. The stock surged the next day, ending the regular session up 25%.
On Sept. 26, 2006, RHT was trounced for a 14.5% decline in after-hours trade after the company reported Q2 results ahead of expectations and guided mostly in line looking forward. The downside swooned lower the following day, with RHT losing 23.2% by the Sept. 27 closing bell.
On June 28, 2006, RHT fell 4.1% in evening trade despite topping Q1 estimates and raising FY07 sales guidance. The shares widened their losses the following day, ending the regular session down 6.4%.
On March 28, 2006, RHT dropped 3.9% in after hours despite beating Q4 estimates and guiding for Q1 EPS above expectations. The shares recovered slightly the next day, ending regular hours down 2.1%.
On Dec. 21, 2005, shares gained 2.9% after hours following the company's conference call guidance that topped the Street; shares backtracked just after earnings were released earlier in the night session. The gain stretched to 4.6% during the next day's regular session.
On Sept. 28, 2005 RHT gained 11.8% in after-hours trade after the company beat Street expectations and set higher guidance. Buyers flooded into the stock on Sept. 29, driving it up a whopping 29.8% between the bells.
RHT fell 3.5% after hours on June 30, 2005, after besting Q1 targets but guiding Q2 and full-year revenue below the Street. It reversed direction in the July 1 regular session, climbing sharply to close up 9.2%.
On March 31, 2005, RHT edged down 0.6% following better-than-expected revenue and in-line EPS results. It rebounded firmly to the plus side on April 1, soaring 11.4% by the closing bell.
RHT was hit for a 6.3% decline the night of Dec. 22, 2004 after the company reported Q3 sales below Street estimates and set its Q4 and full year revenue outlook shy of expectations. The stock crossed more aggressive downside momentum the next day, losing 13.5% by the regular session close.
RHT slid 3.3% the night of Sept. 20, 2004 after the company missed revenue expectations and set its sales outlook below the Street view. The stock cratered 12.3% in the Sept. 21 regular session.
RHT missed revenue expectations in the June 17, 2004 after-hours session, and the stock lost 9.8%. It followed that downside move with a 10.2% decline by the close of the June 18 regular session.
RHT jumped 10.1% in the March 23, 2004 after-hours following its in-line results and strong subscription growth numbers. It saw its upside narrow sharply in the next day's regular session, closing the day with a more modest 3% rise.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
