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Preview: What Goldman Sachs expects from the Q4 Tankan

Bank of Japan's Q4 Tankan due at 2350 GMT (8:50 am in Tokyo)

The fourth quarter Tankan is the highlight of Asia-Pacific trading today. The consensus estimate is for a +11 reading for large manufacturers compared to +12 in Q3. The non-manufacturing index is expected to slip to +23 from +25.

Goldman Sachs' estimate for large manufacturers is in-line with the consensus while they expect a sharper drop for non-manufacturers.

They highlight the Reuters Tankan as a reason for caution on non-manufacturers. That index fell to +18 from +22. Goldman expects a similar drop in the BOJ survey to +21 from +25.

"We expect the three-month forward manufacturing and non-manufacturing DIs to be a little weaker than December's based on weak consumption momentum and an uncertain outlook for demand overseas," Goldman Sachs economists write.

The good news in the survey is expected to come on the investment side. Goldman expects FY2015 capex plans to remain upbeat, and forecast 10.5% growth plans for large firms (September: 10.9%).

The final BOJ decision of the year is on Friday and Goldman expects no changes. They had been forecasting more easing in January but have now pushed that out to the end of April.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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