December wheat was down 2 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look bearish this morning with a surge to a 6-week high in the dollar and another sharp break in equity, energy and metal markets. The market remains in a steep downtrend, and open interest is also declining. Weather is somewhat threatening for US production next year, and Ukraine winter wheat is in very poor condition with traders now expecting significant loss over the winter. Traders still see very stiff competition on the world market, and another jump in the US dollar makes exports more difficult. The EU cleared 352,000 tonnes of wheat for export in the past week, which pushed cumulative exports to just 6.1 million tonnes from 9.6 million last year by this date. Traders are also adjusting Australia wheat production estimates higher. December wheat closed sharply lower again on Wednesday, and with the weakness overnight, the market is down as much as 67 1/2 cents from last week's highs. The early selling Wednesday pushed the market to a new contract low. The strong US dollar and weakness in other grain markets helped to drive the market lower. Talk that the market is oversold failed to provide much support as traders sense more macro economic risk for grain markets into early next week. Recent COT reports showed a near record net short position from fund traders as of November 15th, and the market has been down sharply since. Traders indicated that rain for the southern plains early this week was disappointing compared with expectations from late last week. Rains into this weekend look to be centered east of main growing areas. Traders will keep an eye on southern plains weather, as soil conditions are still too dry. Traders see weekly export sales for wheat this morning near 400,000 tonnes. The International Grains Council cut their forecast for 2011/12 global wheat production by 1 million tonnes to 683 million tonnes from 653 million last year. December Minneapolis wheat is now down as much as $1.38 from the November 8th peak. KC wheat pushed to a new low for the move.
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