Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report

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December wheat was up 8 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market factors look mixed today, as weakness in energy and equity markets are seen as negative but metal markets and other grains are higher and the US dollar is mixed. September wheat deliveries came in at 523 contracts this morning, which pushed month-to-date deliveries to 3,270. Long liquidation selling was noted yesterday, as traders appeared to be moving to the sidelines ahead of the 3-day weekend. The jump in corn overnight helped support a bounce in wheat as well. Talk of a lower than expected quality of milling wheat from Ukraine overnight may have also lent support. India's Food Minister indicated that a panel will consider more grain exports on September 6th, but the weekly wholesale food inflation index for the week ending August 20th jumped to 10.05% from a year ago from a 9.8% rise the previous week, which is the highest in four months. While wheat and rice stocks are high and India wheat production was a record high this year, exports may still be considered risky by the government until food prices calm. Late selling emerged from fund traders to drive the market sharply lower yesterday. December wheat closed near the lows and pushed to the lowest level since August 19th. The market is already down as much as 47 1/2 cents off of Monday's peak. Continued talk that Black Sea wheat exporters will continue to secure most of the export tenders helped to pressure. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 369,200 metric tonnes, which was near the low end of expectations. As of August 25th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 40.8% of the USDA forecast for 2011/12 marketing year versus a 5-year average of 42.7%. Sales of 442,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. A bulk of the sales were for hard red winter wheat, and traders remain nervous that exports could be revised lower by the USDA but that much of the reduction will push soft red ending stocks higher. Soft red wheat ending stocks are already pegged at the 2nd highest on record. Last year's export pace was strong in September and October, when Russia had banned exports, so sales could continue to slip behind the necessary pace in the weeks ahead. Libya bought 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia in their tender. Continued talk of some rain for the winter wheat regions into next week helped to pressure the market, and US dollar strength added to the negative tone. The EU granted export licenses for 276,000 tonnes of soft wheat this week. This pushed cumulative exports since the start of the season to 2.1 million tonnes as compared with 3.3 million last year at this time. Taiwan bought 53,170 tonnes of US wheat.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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