Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

January soybeans were trading up 4 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures closed up 0.2% overnight and Malaysia palm oil futures were up 1.1% overnight. Equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally stronger overnight but early indications are that the US markets will open with moderate losses. The US Dollar shifted from slightly weaker against most of the major currencies to stronger early this morning. Australian GDP during the third quarter was up 1.0, in line with forecasts. UK Industrial Production during October was down 0.7%, lower than expectations. The only major US economic number to be released this morning will October Consumer Credit at 2:00 PM, as well as a private survey of mortgage applications released before the Wednesday opening. Meal deliveries this morning were 59 contracts for a total of 659 for the month while oil deliveries were 1,266 to push cumulative for the month to 8,900 contracts. Outside market forces were slightly negative overnight after looking positive early. Ideas that European leaders will come up with solutions which can at least temporarily ease debt concerns in the euro zone helped to support. The more positive tilt to outside markets clashes with a weak demand tone for US soybean exports as traders are looking for the USDA to lower exports by 25-50 million bushels in the supply/demand update which is likely to push up the ending stocks outlook. Traders are looking for 2011/12 soybean ending stocks near 215 million bushels for the report on Friday as compared with 195 million bushels from the November report and 160 million from the October report. Cumulative shipments so far for the marketing year have reached just 428.3 million bushels, down 35.6% (236.7 million bushels) from last year's pace. The world report is not expected to show much in the way of changes as it may be too early to make adjustments in the South America production outlook. January soybeans inched higher in quiet trade late in the session yesterday and managed to close slightly higher on the session. The market saw follow-through technical selling from late Monday to pressure the market early and higher than expected Canadian canola production helped to pressure. Late Monday, a major credit ratings agency warned that 15 nations in the Euro zone could face downgrade if EU leaders do not reach a substantive agreement to resolve their debt crisis by this weekend's summit meeting. Talk of poor crush margins in China plus continued concerns that US export projections will need to be revised lower due to the slow pace so far helped to pressure. A firm tone to gulf basis and ideas that the market was a bit oversold after Monday's set-back may have helped support the market. In addition, there seems to be some concerns over a dry forecast for parts of Argentina and southern Brazil over the next ten days. South Korea is tendering to buy 150,000 tonnes of soybeans. Stats Canada pegged canola production at a record high of 14.17 million tonnes which was up near the high end of trade expectations. Traders see Malaysia palm oil production in November down 15-17% from last year and also a decline in Indonesia production.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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