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Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

January soybeans were up 5 1/4 cents late in the overnight session. China futures closed down 0.2% overnight, and Malaysian palm oil futures were up 0.1% overnight. While equity markets in Asia were mixed during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe are generally higher this morning, and US equity markets look to open sharply higher. The US Dollar is moderately weaker against most of the major currencies, though it posted a small gain against the Yen. French President Sarkozy called for a new EU Treaty to include tougher budget rules and creating a new European Monetary Fund. German Chancellor Merkel stated that resolving the EU sovereign debt crisis is a process that will take years to complete. Euro zone PPI during October was up 5.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations. A private survey of UK Construction during November was at 52.3, slightly above forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include November Non-farm Payrolls, November Private Payrolls and the November Unemployment Rate at 7:30 AM. Meal deliveries this morning were 109 contracts (325 for month) and oil deliveries were 1,603 (4929 for month). The market is seeing support from outside forces again this morning with higher gold, energy and stock markets. The grain markets have seen a muted response so far to the more positive outside markets, and the recent COT report showed a hefty net short position from grain traders in most markets except corn. Traders remain concerned with the European and Chinese economic news, and there is also growing concern that the USDA may lower its soybean export forecast for the season, as sales are down 35% from last year's pace. Improving bio-diesel exports from Argentina has helped support the soybean oil market, and traders are also somewhat concerned with declining palm oil production due to heavy monsoon rains this year. January soybeans closed slightly lower on the session yesterday after choppy and two-sided trade for much of the session. Soybean oil closed higher, and meal closed moderately lower on the day. Sluggish exports and fears that Brazil will remain a more active exporter in the months just ahead helped to pressure. Brazil exported 1.759 million tonnes of soybeans in November, compared with 1.413 million in October and just 301,300 tonnes last year. Brazil supply was tight at the end of last year, but traders indicate hefty South America stocks for late 2011. Traders see a bit more uncertainty over the actions from central bankers in Europe this week, and there is still a call for a more definitive path for debt issues. In addition, negative manufacturing data from China added to the negative tone. Sluggish export sales and ideas that South America weather is still favorable for crops helped to trigger some selling pressures. Weekly export sales for soybeans, released before the open yesteRDAY, came in at 489,600 tonnes, which was below trade expectations. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 59.0% of the USDA forecast for 2011/12 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 64.5%. Sales of 367,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. China was the largest buyer at 534,600 tonnes, but that was offset by net reductions of 370,500 tonnes for unknown destinations. Meal sales were 135,500 metric tonnes, in line with expectations. Sales of 99,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales were 8,900 tonnes, in line with expectations. The USDA attache in Brazil believes the crop this year could reach a record 75.5 million tonnes, up from 75.3 million last year.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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