January soybeans were up 14 cents late in the overnight session. China futures closed slightly higher on the session this morning after losing 2% last week. Equity markets look to start off sharply higher this week. The US Dollar is sharply lower against most of the major currencies. An Italian newspaper is reporting that Italy may receive a 600 billion Euro loan from the IMF if their debt problems get worse, although the IMF later denied that report. Belgium has passed a new austerity budget and may be closing in on forming a new government. A major credit rating agency warned that the current debt crisis could threaten the sovereign debt ratings of all Euro zone nations. The only major US economic number to be released this morning will be October New Home Sales at 9:00 AM. The surge higher in energy and metal markets adds to the positive tone this morning. The market appears to have absorbed recessionary-type pricing with the breakdown in outside market forces last week. China has been a more active buyer on the world market in the past few weeks, and China National Grains and Oils Information Centre believes that Chinese imports are expected to improve to near 13 million tonnes for the first quarter of 2012, which would be up 18.5% from this year and a record high. Traders in China see imports near 60 million tonnes as compared with the current USDA estimate of 56.5 million tonnes for the 2011/12 season. South Korea is tendering for 150,000 tonnes of optional origin non-GMO soybeans. While traders see South American crops in good condition now, a somewhat hot and mostly dry weather outlook for the next 10 days could spark some concerns for dry pockets in certain areas of southern Brazil and Argentina. A sharp break in soyoil helped drive the market lower on Friday with quiet trade. December oil saw a break of as much as 266 points from Wednesday's highs, even with a recovery in energy markets. January soybeans posted a low of 1102 3/4 and rallied to as high as 1125 3/4 early in the session but could not hold on to the gains. A recovery in the US stock market from steep losses plus a turn higher in energy markets and better than expected export sales helped to support. Talk that winter grains and oilseeds in Eastern Europe and especially Ukraine could be damaged due to a lack of rain also helped to support. Strength in wheat and corn into the mid-session helped pull soybeans well up from the early lows to slightly higher on the day and helped push meal higher on the day. Weekly export sales for soybeans, released before the open on Friday, came in at 921,600 metric tonnes, which was well above trade expectations. China was a net buyer of 936,000 tonnes for the week. As of November 17th, cumulative soybean sales stood at 57.7% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 62.1%. Sales of 370,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales reached 184,900 tonnes for the current marketing year and 700 for the next marketing year for a total of 185,600 which was near the high end of expectations. Sales of 100,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 2,700 metric tonnes as compared with sales of 12,000 tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
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