Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

November soybeans were up 6 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. China futures were up 0.3% overnight, and palm oil futures at their mid-session were up 0.5% overnight in Malaysia. There were 635 deliveries against the September soybean contract this morning. Oil deliveries totaled 299 contracts, and meal deliveries came in at 125. While equity markets in Asia were mixed during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe were generally weaker this morning. Early indications are that US equity markets will open with moderate losses. The US Dollar is stronger against most of the major currencies this morning. President Obama announced a $447 billion jobs plan during a speech in front of a joint session of Congress last night, highlighted by payroll tax cuts. G7 Finance Ministers will meet in Marseilles to discuss current global economic problems. Chinese CPI during July was up 6.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Chinese Industrial Production during July was up 13.5% year-on-year, slightly below some market forecasts. Japanese GDP during the second quarter was down 0.5%, in line with estimates. German CPI during August was up 2.4% year-on-year, above expectations. French Industrial Production during July was up 1.5%, above forecasts. UK PPI during August was up 6.1% year-on-year, above estimates. The only major US economic number to be released this morning will be July Wholesale Inventories at 9:00 AM. In addition, Fed Regional President Williams will give a speech during the session. The market saw a bounce overnight, even with a stronger US dollar and weakness in energy and equity markets. The US dollar is at the highest level since July 12th, and the market is already seeing weaker demand for US soybeans due to a higher than normal supply from South America for this time of the year. The results of the USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports for Monday morning will set the tone for the market next week. Traders will monitor weekly export sales news this morning for some direction. Similar to Wednesday, the market recovered from early losses to close slightly lower on the session yesterday. A long liquidation trend has helped pressure the market ahead of the weekend and ahead of the USDA reports for Monday, but wheat and corn took the brunt of the selling yesterday. Weakness in corn and wheat led the market lower on apparent profit-taking ahead of the reports. This, along with a strong US dollar and talk of increased harvest pressure in corn, helped to pressure. For the reports, traders are looking for a yield near 41 bushels per acre and soybean production near 3.025 billion bushels. Ending stocks are expected to come in near 152 million bushels, coompared with 155 million last month and 230 million for the 2010/11 season, which just ended. If yield is adjusted down to 40.4 bu/acre (41.4 last month) then ending stocks could slip to near 82 million bushels and a record low 2.6% stocks/usage. However, export demand is also likely to be adjusted lower and crush slightly lower. Deteriorating crop conditions have traders expecting a lower yield. Egypt is tendering to buy 30,000 tonnes of soybean oil. Traders see weekly export sales in the US, for release before the opening, near 500,000 tonnes.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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