Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

November soybeans were up 13 cents late in the overnight session. Malaysia palm futures closed up 1.5% overnight, and China futures shot up 2.1%. Outside market forces look positive today. Stock indices in Europe are generally stronger this morning, and early indications are that US equity markets will open with substantial gains. The US Dollar is weaker against most of the major currencies this morning, although posting a gain versus the Swiss Franc. Finance Minister Noda will become the new Prime Minister of Japan. Tropical Storm Irene has created massive transportation problems and will impact trading volumes in the New York markets. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning are July Personal Income and Personal Consumption at 7:30 AM, and a private survey of US Pending Home Sales at 9:00 AM. Strength in metals and energy markets may also provide some support. The market saw an impressive upside breakout on Friday, and with a positive tilt to outside markets, more buying emerged overnight to support sharply higher trade and a move to the highest level since June for nearby futures. Traders see dryness concerns for central Illinois and southern Minnesota as short-term supply factors, which might be causing declining yield estimates from traders. Traders see another 1-2% decline in crop ratings for tonight's weekly update. The rally overnight was especially impressive given the crop tour results from Friday afternoon. In the annual Pro Farmer crop tour, the average soybean yield estimate came in at 41.8 bu/acre, compared with the USDA estimate from the August report at 41.4. If we plug in this yield estimate and leave all the other numbers unchanged, ending stocks come in at 185 million bushels with a stocks/usage of 5.9%. This is up from the USDA August estimate of 155 million bushels. The tour did note that good rains would be necessary to support the higher yields, and this is certainly in question. Rain events look active in the next ten days in the northern Corn Belt and in the southern sections of the Corn Belt and the northern delta, but limited rains for the central part of the Midwest could keep crops in dry areas under stress. A sharp set-back in corn production this year might spark better demand for meal and December meal matched the March 31st contract high on Friday and surged to new contract highs this morning. The Commitments of Traders reports as of August 23rd showed non-commercial traders were net long 129,790 contracts for soybeans, an increase of 50,535 contracts in just one week. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 164,046 contracts, up 3,470. The aggressive buying trend from fund traders is seen as a positive short-term force. For meal, non-commercial traders were net long 32,442 contracts, an increase of 15,087 contracts for the week. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 49,500 contracts, up 22,737 contracts for the week. For oil, non-commercial traders were net long 9,792 contracts, an increase of 11,597 contracts for the week. The shift from a net short to net long position is seen as positive. After some choppy and lower trade early, November soybeans saw a major technical breakout to the upside on Friday, and they moved to sharply higher on the day. Talk that yield could slip below the August USDA report helped to support the solid recovery and rally to higher on the day.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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