Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

November soybeans were down 7 3/4 cents late in the overnight session. Malaysian palm futures closed down 1.1% on the day, and China soybean futures closed 0.3% lower. While equity markets in Asia were mixed during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe were generally weaker this morning. Early indications were that US equity markets would open with moderate losses. The US Dollar is stronger against most major currencies this morning, although posting a loss versus the Swiss Franc. German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy are having a summit meeting in Paris today to discuss methods to support the Euro zone during the current debt crisis. An official Chinese paper has called for that nation to widen their trading bands for the Yuan versus the Dollar. German GDP during the second quarter was up 0.1%, much lower than expected. UK CPI during July was up 4.4% year-on-year, higher than forecasts. Euro zone GDP during the second quarter was up 0.2%, lower than expectations. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include July Housing Starts along with July Import & Export prices at 7:30 AM, July Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 AM, and private surveys of store sales released during the session. A strong dollar and a sharp setback in the stock market overnight are factors which helped to pressure the market early today. The market remains concerned with a dry pocket in Iowa and western Illinois where there could be developing moisture stress. With the USDA ending stocks projection already tight, there is not much room for any further decline in the yield estimate. Global demand concerns this morning look to be a significant force. The weekly Crop Progress Report showed that 61% of the soybean crop was rated good/excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from last week and down from 66% last year. Conditions improved by 3% each for Ohio and Minnesota but fell 5% in Iowa to 70% good/excellent. While there are a few chances for light rain events in the next ten days for the dry pockets, the lack of a significant rain event in the forecast models for the next few weeks is a concern. However, the lack of heat is also a factor that has helped crops improve in areas where rain has been more plentiful. November soybeans closed sharply higher on the session yesterday and saw its highest close since August 3rd. Less rain than expected in eastern Iowa/west-central Illinois for the past weekend helped to support, and outside market factors such as a sharply lower US dollar and higher equity and energy markets helped. A bit of an inflationary tilt to commodity markets added to the positive tone. Traders viewed the NOPA crush report as supportive, with the crush for July much higher than expected given what appeared to be poor crush margins. July crush was pegged at 122.95 million bushels from trade expectations at 118.5 million bushels and compared with the June crush of 117.7 million. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at just 4.277 million bushels, which was well below trade expectations and belwo the 20.48 million necessary each week to reach the USDA export projection.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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