Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

November soybeans were down 2 3/4 cents late in the overnight session after first trading as much as 29 1/2 cents lower. Malaysia palm futures closed down 2.5% to new 9-month lows. China soybean futures closed 1.8% lower and down for the 4th session in a row. While equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally weaker during the overnight session, early indications are that US equity markets will open with moderate gains later on today. The US Dollar is weaker against most of the major currencies this morning, although it did post gains versus the Canadian and Australian Dollars. Greek authorities have banned short selling on the Athens stock exchange for the next two months. Chinese CPI during July was up 6.5% year-on-year, higher than expectations. The German Trade surplus during June was 11.5 billion Euros, lower than forecasts. UK Industrial Production during June was unchanged, lower than market projections. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee will announce their decision on US monetary policy at 1:15 PM. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include second quarter Non-Farm Productivity at 7:30 AM, and private surveys of store sales released during the session. Meal deliveries against the August contract this morning came in at 95 contracts with oil deliveries at 42. There are still no deliveries for August soybeans. The market saw an aggressive sell-off overnight, led by the inability of global stock markets to find a near-term low. However, when the US market found some support and equity futures pushed sharply higher, soybeans saw a late recovery to trade just slightly lower on the day. The weekly Crop Progress report, released after the close yesterday, showed that 61% of the soybean crop was rated good/excellent as of Sunday, compared to 60% last week and 66% last year. Traders had expected a drop of 1%, so the news was negative. Some further deterioration was noted in Illinois and Iowa, but Ohio jumped 3% to 58%. Traders seem to have a bullish tilt for the USDA reports for Thursday morning, but outside market forces continue to pressure. Traders believe the the extreme heat the crop experienced during July may spark a lower yield estimate from the USDA, but weather in August is key, and the weather seems to be improving, with normal temperatures and more rain in the forecast for the next 10 days. Traders see production in the US down 35-40 million bushels from the July USDA estimate of 3.225 billion bushels. However, beginning stocks may be adjusted higher due to sluggish demand and hefty world supply, so the entire 35-40 million may not be pulled out of new crop ending stocks, especially if new crop demand numbers are adjusted lower. Traders believe that world ending stocks for the 2010/11 season could be adjusted higher by more than 1/2 million tonnes from the previous (and all-time record high) USDA July estimate of 65.88 million tonnes. November soybeans closed sharply lower on the session yesterday and stayed weak into the close, as meal closed near the lows and oil pushed down to the lowest level since March 17th. The commodity sell-off based on ideas of a weaker global economy helped drive the market sharply lower. November soybeans were down to their lowest level since March 17th on the spike down overnight. Weekly export inspections for soybeans, released during the session yesterday, came in at 5.64 million bushels, which was near the low end of trade expectations and well below the 16.8 million average needed each week to reach the USDA projection.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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