Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

November soybeans were down 16 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Malaysian palm futures closed down 1.1% overnight, and China soybean futures closed down 0.8%. Weakness stemmed from fears of slower global economies and that the Chinese government will take further actions to curb inflation. Outside market forces look negative today, as intervention in Japan sent the US dollar sharply higher and weakness in equity and energy markets added to the bearish tone for commodity markets. Meal deliveries against the August contract this morning came in at 172 contracts with oil deliveries at 275. There are still no deliveries for August soybeans. A negative tilt to commodity markets based on ideas that the global growth theme is a bust has helped spark significant liquidation over the past few months, and soybeans have been no exception. The move in the US dollar to its highest level since July 21st and weakness in energy markets overnight helped add to these fears. US and China economic numbers have been very weak, and Europe debt problems persist. While there is rain and cooler temperatures in the forecast for the next 10 days, rain amounts have been adjusted lower in some areas short-term, and the extended models show some heat and dryness returning. The 11-15 day models indicatate that rainfall may stay in the northern Midwest, while Arkansas, Missouri and central and southern Illinois and Indiana could be dry. Traders still see rains into the weekend for the heart of the Midwest, but amounts have been reduced to 1/2 inch or less. Traders will continue to monitor weather closely, stress from the dry conditions is developing in some areas of the central and southern Midwest. Cooking oil prices in China have jumped 5% in recent days. It appears that the government is now allowing some increase in prices, after thier attempts to control vegetable oil prices in recent months to fight inflation. For the US poultry industry, the weekly report showed eggs set at 6% lower than last year and chick placements at 4% down from last year. The data suggests slower demand for meal in the months just ahead. November soybeans closed slightly lower on the session yesterday with an inside trading day. Weakness in corn, improving weather ahead and weak soybean basis levels at the gulf following higher prices Tuesday were factors that pressured prices. Ideas that the market rallied too far, too fast Tuesday added to the long liquidation selling trend. Traders are monitoring yield and production estimates for next week's USDA reports. Some traders are pulling yield down significantly from the last USDA report while others show a slight decline.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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