Pre-Opening Soy Complex Market Report

November soybeans were down 1 cent late in the overnight session. Malaysian palm futures closed slightly lower overnight, and China soybean futures closed up 0.5%, as more and more edible oil makers are able to raise prices in China, and this seems to be improving demand from crushers. Outside market forces look negative today with a strong US dollar and weakness in global equity markets. Meal deliveries against the August contract this morning came in at 3 contracts, and oil deliveries were 678. There are still no deliveries for August soybeans. Uncertainty for the global economic condition has helped to limit the buying support recently, and actions in Washington have helped dull the demand outlook for many markets and have been seen as a negative for commodity prices in general. The weekly Crop Progress Report showed that 60% of the soybean crop was rated good/excellent as of Sunday, compared to 62% last week and 66% last year. (Traders were expecting to see a 1-2% decline.) The 10 year average for this time of year is 60%. The highest percent rated good/excellent was 80% in 1994, while the lowest was 24% in 1988. Conditions slipped 4% in Iowa to 76%. This was offset by improvements in Ohio and Minnesota. Traders see rains in the northern and central parts of the Midwest into the weekend, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day models for the central Midwest show above normal precipitation. This is occurring right into a critical time for yield development, and traders suspect that crop conditions could improve in the next few weeks. One exception might be Arkansas, as that region still looks to be mostly hot and dry ahead. November soybeans closed slightly higher on the session yesterday but 12 cents off of the early highs. Traders see July weather as a factor that hurt corn yields, but August weather is key for soybeans, and the first two weeks of the month look to see much better growing conditions. Weakness in the US dollar and a surge higher in stock markets helped to support the strong opening yesterday, but a turn down in stocks and a turn up in the dollar helped the market give back most of the early gains. This trend held the market lower overnight despite deteriorating crop conditions. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at 5.76 million bushels. This was near the low end of expectations. 14.65 million are necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Brazil exported 3.74 million tonnes of soybeans in July, which was down from 4.55 million in June and 4.0 million last July.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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