December corn was down 7 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside markets look mixed today but are showing a firm tone late. After reaching historically high prices and with speculators holding a hefty net long position, the corn market has seen an aggressive sell-off over the past few days. Reports from the field still indicate pollination and tipping issues in many parts of the Midwest, but northern growing areas are reporting great looking crops and fewer heat issues. Traders are nervous over stressful conditions for central and southern Illinois, which is a region which has not seen rain in over a week and which is showing a 50-60% chance seeing good rain in the next week. Rain is needed, so any areas which miss out could continue to deteriorate. The USDA crop production and Supply/Demand reports are next week, and there is much talk of the potential that the USDA shows will only a small drop in yield for this report and a larger drop for September and October reports. Last year, for example, the August estimate was 165 bu/acre, while the final came in at 152.8. Some traders axpect to see a 157-158 number for this report and lower numbers next month. There are also expected to be planted acreage revisions for North and South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota. Ukraine's weather official believes the corn crop this year could come in at 15-16 million tonnes, up from the previous forecast of 13-14 million tonnes and up from 11.9 million tonnes last year. December corn fell to as low as 688 into the mid-session yesterday before grinding back to close back over 700. The recovery from the lows occurred despite continued weakness in the stock market. Funds were noted sellers on the day. The surging US dollar and a sharp break in the US stock market brought about fears of another fund long liquidation selling spree for commodity markets and helped drive the corn market sharply lower. Weakness in the energy markets added to the negative tone. Net weekly export sales for corn, released during the session yesterday, came in at 297,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 461,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 758,600, which was below trade expectations. Cumulative corn sales stand at 16.6% of the USDA forecast for 2011/12 (next) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 9.6%. Fears of declining global demand due to sluggish economic conditions helped to pressure. Record high pork prices and record high nearby futures for hogs were seen as positive longer-term factors for feed demand. University of Illinois economists believe that the July heat will lead to below-average yields this year but that August weather will determine the extent of the losses. Their projected yield for this year is in the 150-154 range.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
