Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 8/17/2011

December corn was up 1 cent late in the overnight session. Outside markets look supportive today with a lower US dollar and higher energy markets. The market hovered near contract highs overnight, as harvested acreage concerns and the potential for lower yield are factors that have lent support. December corn closed moderately higher on the session yesterday and into new contract highs for the second day in a row. Fears of lower yield and talk of smaller than expected harvested acres this season helped to support. A preliminary release from NASS of the FSA 2011 acreage numbers had traders believing that the USDA may eventually reduce harvested acres for corn by anywhere from 400,000 to 1.3 million acres lost. The data was far from complete, and traders attempted to fill in the holes to determine if the USDA may make some significant changes for the October production report. Producers are required to submit an annual report on all cropland use to local FSA offices by July 15th in order to be eligible for USDA programs. This data was released on the web to the public for the first time this year. In past years, the data was used by various agencies and sometimes used to adjust acreage for the October report for corn and soybeans and the small grains report for wheat. If harvest acres are reduced by 1 million acres due to flooding and planting issues and the rest of the supply/demand numbers are left unchanged, corn ending stocks would slip to 560 million bushels (714 in last report) with a record low 4.3% stocks/usage. The weekly crop update showed 60% of the crop rated good/excellent, unchanged from last week and compared to 69% last year. Ohio and Wisconsin conditions improved but Iowa saw a drop of 6% to 67% good/excellent. Iowa yield is expected to be up 12 bu/acre from last year, but the crop is rated 1% under last year, so traders are questioning the high USDA yield. Illinois is still rated 50% good to excellent as compared with 63% last year, but USDA had Illinois yield at 170 bushels per acre for last week's report as compared with 157 bu/acre last year. Cash markets were quiet with a weaker tone to the Gulf basis as traders see the start of the harvest in the south.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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